Financial
liberalisation in the developed countries, which was closely related
to these developments, further increased funds available in the system.
First, it increased the flexibility of banking and financial institutions
when creating credit and making investments, as well as permitted the
proliferation of institutions like the hedge funds that, unlike the
banks, were not subject to regulation. It also provided the space for
"financial innovation" or the creation of a range of new financial
instruments or derivatives such as swaps, options and futures that were
virtually autonomously created by the financial system. Finally, it
increased competition and whetted the appetite of banks to earn higher
returns, thus causing them to search out new recipients for loans in
different economic regions.
The massive increase in international
liquidity that followed found banks and non-bank financial institutions
desperately searching for means to keep their capital moving. At first,
there were booms in consumer credit and housing finance in the developed
industrial nations. But when those opportunities petered out, a number
of developing countries were discovered as the "emerging markets"
of the global financial order. Capital in the form of debt and equity
investments began to flow into these countries, especially those that
were quick to liberalize rules relating to cross-border capital flows
and regulations governing the conversion of domestic into foreign currency
The result of these developments was that there was a host of new financial
assets in the emerging markets, which were characterized by higher interest
rates ostensibly because of the greater risks of investment in these
areas. The greater perceived risk associated with financial
instruments originating in these countries, provided the basis for a
whole range of new derivatives that bundled these risks and offered
a hedge against risk in different individual markets, each of which
promised high returns.
There
are a number of features characteristic of the global financial system
which evolved in this manner. Principal among these is the growing importance
of unregulated financial agents, such as the so-called hedge funds,
in the system. Many years back the Group of 30 had cautioned governments
that these funds were a source of concern because they were prone to
"undercapitalisation, faulty systems, inadequate supervision and
human error". Though hedge funds first originated immediately after
the second world war, they are estimated to manage close to $500 billion
of investors' money. These investors include major international banks,
which are themselves forced by rules and regulations to avoid risky
transactions promising high returns, but use the hedge funds as a front
to undertake such transactions. The operations of the now infamous Long
Term Capital Management illustrate this. On an equity base of a little
less than $5 billion, LTCM had borrowed enough to undertake investments
valued at $200 billion or more. This was possible because there was
nothing in the regulatory mechanism that limited the exposure of these
institutions relative to their capital base. Yet when several of its
own investments came unstuck in 1998 and LTCM therefore faced major
repayment problems of its own, it had to be rescued by the US Federal
Reserve, because the costs of its collapse were seen to be too major.
Such
flows of credit to a few institutions are significant because in a world
of globalized and liberalised finance, when countries are at different
phases of the business cycle and characterised by differential interest
rates, capital will tend to flow in the direction of higher returns
in the short term. Nothing illustrates this better than the "yen-carry
trades" of the period 1995 to 1997, which emerged from the wide
interest differentials between the United States and Japan, in conjunction
with the belief that the Bank of Japan did not want the yen to strengthen
in 199697. These trades involved borrowing in yen, selling the
yen for dollars, and investing the proceeds in relatively high-yielding
US fixed-income securities. In hindsight, these trades turned out to
be considerably more profitable than simply the interest differential,
for the yen depreciated continuously over the two years from May 1995
through May 1997, which reduced the yen liability relative to the dollar
investment that it financed. The implications of these and other flows
to the US was that international liquidity "was intermediated in
US financial markets and invested abroad through purchases of foreign
securities by US investors ($108 billion) and by net lending abroad
by US banks ($98 billion)."
There
are a number of points to note from these examples. To start with, the
global financial system is obviously characterised by a high degree
of centralisation. With US financial institutions intermediating global
capital flows, the investment decisions of a few individuals in a few
institutions virtually determines the nature of the "exposure"
of the global financial system. Unfortunately, unregulated entities
making huge profits on highly speculative investments are at the core
of that system. The growing consolidation in the financial sector noted
by the G-10 study increases this centralisation.
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