The Role China Plays
Jan 25th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar
China, which is being touted as the biggest challenger to US economic supremacy, is witnessing slowdown in its growth rates. However, such a slowdown could prove to be bad news for the US economy as well, because China also happens to be the biggest market for all US MNCs.
Year of Centenaries
Jan 12th 2012, Jayati Ghosh
100 years ago when Gustav Mahler composed his 9th Symphony, it reflected the troubling times he lived in. It was music for uncertain times, even though it contains within it certainties of different kinds. 100 years later, there is almost a sense of déjà vu with Europe, and indeed the whole world, now faced with another period of political and economic volatility.
Prospects for the World Economy in 2012
Dec 27th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
2011 revealed that the much vaunted economic recovery after the Great Recession was not inherently sustainable, as the recent problems of global capitalism, including those associated with excessive debt build-up, were reflected in new areas and caused economic slowdown across the world. Against the backdrop of economic trends in 2011, this article assesses the prospects for the world economy in 2012.
European Banks and Asia
Nov 17th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
European banks are being forced to take a haircut to deal with the region's crisis. Given their greater role in total international funding and the significant exposure of Asian financial systems to global capital, this raises concerns about the likely impact that the European banking crisis would have on Asia.
Employment Generation as an Economic Strategy for Uncertain Times
Nov 14th 2011, Jayati Ghosh
This is the acceptance speech made by the author at the award function of the ILO Decent Work Research Prize, 2010. Discussing the growing pressures in the current global scenario, she argues for a shift in macroeconomic strategy towards domestic wage- and employment-led growth as a means to sustainable growth, as well as an end in itself.
The G20 and Employment Outlook
Oct 12th 2011, Jayati Ghosh
A recent ILO document on employment and labour market outlook in G20 countries points towards an economic crisis of major magnitude in most of them. According to the report, the two key challenges for global policy makers at present are to ensure better utilisation of labour resources and better quality jobs.
What World Leaders Need to Do Urgently (but are not)
Oct 4th 2011, Jayati Ghosh
Global leaders' efforts to control the prevailing anarchy and enable recovery in their economies end up having the opposite effect, because the direction of their macroeconomic policies is all wrong and mobile finance capital is still largely unregulated. Here are five basic steps that world leaders need to take.
Shifting Havens for Capital
Sep 30th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar
In parallel with the sudden strengthening of the dollar recently, the value of a whole host of alternative assets has fallen. In the process developing countries that have been the targets of financial investors and those dependent on commodity exports have become particularly vulnerable.
The Persistent Global Crisis
Sep22nd 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
World financial leaders gather at Washington for the annual meetings of the World Bank and the IMF amid fears of another global recession. But the perspective and will needed to address the problem appear to be absent.
The Global Recession and India
Aug 29th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
With global growth slowing and financial markets experiencing a downturn, the fallout for India is a matter of concern. The channels through which these effects could be transmitted are more in number than conventionally recognised.
Global Disorder and the Indian Economy
Aug 25th 2011, Jayati Ghosh
The Indian economy is showing the classic signs of a bubble economy and any small signs of external vulnerability and economic fragility can cause it to burst. Crucial possible downsides of the current round of global uncertainty for India and other emerging markets include the lack of import demand growth in the US and the EU, renewed inflows of mobile capital, etc.
Is China next?
Aug 10th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar
While some observers expect a collapse of the property boom in China and a resultant crisis, this seems unlikely to happen because the state, still a major player in China, is responding to the danger in more ways than one.
America's Debt-ceiling Crisis
Aug 4th 2011, Prabhat Patnaik
The compromise between Obama and the Republicans to end the US debt-ceiling crisis has done great damage in terms of a sharp regression in income distribution and a remarkable shift to the Right in the US, as well as an aggravation of the recession in the world economy.
Global Oil Prices
Jul 13th 2011, Jayati Ghosh
Recent price changes in global oil markets are increasingly affected by forces that have more to do with financial speculation and expectations than with current movements in demand and supply. In the current oil price surge, the real gainers are the financial speculators in oil futures markets and the big oil companies.
Changing Guard at the IMF?
Jul 6th 2011, Jayati Ghosh
The change of guard at the IMF would not make a difference as long as there is no significant change in the Fund's approach to economic policies. Despite the experience of continually getting it wrong in so many countries over so many decades, the Fund is still persisting in imposing the blatantly counterproductive strategy of fiscal austerity everywhere.
Food Price Transmission in South Asia
Jun 14th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The recent increase in global food prices has once again set off alarm signals in developing countries, especially in South Asia, where food inflation has been a major problem for some years now. Evidence from South Asian countries corroborates the fact that domestic factors do play a role in the international transmission; while rising global prices put upward pressure on domestic prices in a much rapid manner, its downward movements are less rapidly or effectively transmitted and often do not have any such impact.
Revisiting Capital Flows
May 4th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
In a recent move the IMF surprised many by revising its position on the use of capital controls and making a case for them in special circumstances. It has followed this up with an analysis of capital flows to developing countries, which also explains its partial rethink on the use of capital controls by developing countries.
The Transmission of Global Food Prices
Mar 22nd 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Global food prices are spiking once again, creating fears of a renewal or intensification of the global food crisis. Given that recent domestic food price changes in different Asian countries point to a broader trend whereby they have been strongly related to international price changes, this is a matter of extreme concern.
Disarray in the Global Economy
Oct 20th 2010, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The injection of cheap money at home to invest in emerging markets for profit by the US Federal Reserve, and its pressure on emerging market economies to allow their exchange rates to appreciate, in the hope that it would expand US exports and reduce its imports and facilitate a recovery, are a sure recipe for conflict.
Fiscal Policy and Global Growth
Jul 27th 2010, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Across the world governments are debating whether it is time to exit from their fiscal response to the global crisis and return to austerity and fiscal consolidation. This may be premature, since the question whether there was indeed such a generalized and adequate fiscal response that triggered a recovery remains unanswered.
Fiscal Discipline and All That
Jul 27th 2010, Jayati Ghosh
There was a sudden resurgence in Keynesian ideas everywhere when the global financial crisis broke in September 2008. But, equally suddenly, financial markets have once again turned back on state intervention and policy makers are giving in to demands for massive cuts in public expenditure that would require enormous sacrifices from their populations.
Financial Euphoria and Aftershock
Feb 24th 2010, Jayati Ghosh
John Kenneth Galbraith's analysis of the capitalist economy in the delightfully written tract ''A Short History of Financial Euphoria'' remains as relevant today as it was then. However, unlike what Galbraith offers, the solution to capitalism's proneness to recurrent bouts of speculation has to go beyond capitalist markets and profit motivation.
The Crisis and Employment in Asia
Feb 15th 2010, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Despite scepticism about its sustainability, evidence shows that the crisis of 2008-09 has bottomed out and a recovery is likely, driven by the fiscal stimulus offered by governments across the world. But figures from the ILO indicate that the impact of the stimulus on employment appears uneven, with export dependent economies in Asia too adversely affected.
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