Once More on Poverty Figures of India
Mar 25th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik

The other day the Chief Executive Officer of Niti Ayog made a fantastic claim, that the poverty ratio in India had fallen below 5 percent according to the 2022-23 consumption expenditure survey data.

On the Fuss over US Interest Rates
Mar 19th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Discussions on macroeconomic policy in the US and other high income countries tend to focus overwhelmingly on central banks' interest rate adjustments, with little clarity on what impact those changes have domestically.

The Mystery about Investment
Feb 6th 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

A decade of decline and stagnation in investment rates is at odds with the official narrative of a resurgent and buoyant economy, which is held back by the demand effects of rising inequality.

What the GDP Hides
Feb 5th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik

There are well-known problems associated with the concept of gross domestic product as well as with its measurement. The inclusion of the service sector within GDP is something that Adam Smith would have objected to on the conceptual grounds that those employed in this sector constituted "unproductive workers";

World Economy: Out of control
Jan 23rd 2024. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

As fears of inflation recede, the prospect of a medium-term slowdown in the global economy looms. The problem is that global leaders have lost control of both macroeconomic policy and the economy.

What "Dollarisation" Entails
Jan 8th 2024, Prabhat Patnaik

Argentina's new president Javier Milei proposes to use US dollars as the currency of his country, while abolishing its central bank altogether. What is involved in this proposal is not just maintaining a fixed exchange rate between the dollar and the domestic currency, but an abolition of the domestic currency altogether.

Pitfalls of Export-Led Growth
Dec 11th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik

The wisdom of pursuing a strategy of export-led growth has been discussed among development economists for at least half a century, ever since the so-called East Asian ''miracle'' started to be contrasted with the comparatively sluggish growth experience of countries like India that were pursuing, in the World Bank's language, an ''inward looking'' development strategy.

India's BoP Story
Oct 3rd 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Despite recording chronic and rising trade deficits, India's balance of payments looks stable and resilient. But that stability may prove to be the source of new problems.

The Anatomy of Inflation
Sep 5th2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

A bad monsoon and possible decline in agricultural production threaten to accelerate ongoing inflation in India, particularly because of increased speculation in the market for food.

When can there be a Fall in the Rate of Profit?
Jul 24th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik

Several major economists have put forward theories predicting a falling tendency of the rate of profit under capitalism; Marx had seen in this fact an awareness on their part of the essential transitoriness of the capitalist system.

Exchange Rate Depreciation and Real Wages
May 29th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik

Most people, including even trained economists, fail to appreciate the fact that an exchange rate depreciation, if it is to work in reducing the trade deficit in a capitalist economy, must necessarily hurt the working class by lowering the real wage rate.

OPEC+ and Capitalism's Fight against Inflation
Apr 17th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik

Except in war-time, capitalism invariably seeks to control inflation by creating a recession; and this is so even when the inflation has been caused by an autonomous increase in capitalists' profit-margins which are downward inflexible and hence would not be reduced by a recession.

Bad Debt and Public Ownership
Jan 27th 2023, C.P. Chandrasekhar

The semi-annual Financial Stability Report from India's central bank signals that India's banking system, especially the public banking system, has put behind it the stress from disturbingly high non-performing or bad loans on its books.

India' Remittance Lifeline
Jan 24th 2023. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

While the resilience of inwards remittance inflows during the pandemic is a source of comfort for India balance of payments, the sharp shift in the share of different sources in 2020-21 is a cause for concern.

How not to Deal with a Debt Crisis
Jan 18th 2023, Jayati Ghosh

Jayati Ghosh warns against historically disastrous approaches to the sovereign-debt crisis hitting low- and middle-income countries.

Storm Clouds over India’s Balance of Payments
Jan 9th 2023, Prabhat Patnaik

India's current account deficit for the second quarter (July-September) of 2022-23 has reached a massive $36.4 billion which is 4.4 per cent of the gross domestic product, higher than at any time in the last nine years.

India's Creeping Industrial Stagnation
Dec 26th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik

There has been much discussion in public about the index of industrial production for October 2022 being 4 per cent lower than the index for October 2021; and quite rightly so, since no obvious explanations like a Covid-induced lockdown or even its residual lingering effects can be adduced to explain this fall.

On Income and Wealth Inequality
Dec 19th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik

The fact that income and wealth inequalities have increased quite dramatically under the neo-liberal regime is beyond dispute. The empirical work by Piketty’s team bears out the increase in income inequality. They use income tax data to infer about the share of the top 1 per cent of the population of a country in its national income.

India's Foreign Trade during the Ukraine War
Dec 13th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The Ukraine War and rising global prices of fuel have had major effects on the external trade of many developing countries. But how much of India's poor trade performance and growing trade deficit since January 2022 can be attributed to such factors?.

The Working Class under Neo-Liberalism
Dec 12th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik

A Neo-liberal regime entails a spontaneous change in the balance of class power against the working class everywhere. This happens for a number of reasons. First, since capital becomes globally mobile while labour is not, such globally mobile capital gets an opportunity to pit the working class of one country against that of another.

The Monetary Policy fallout for Developing Countrie
Nov 15th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Coping with the adverse fallout of tighter monetary policy in the advanced economies will require developing country governments to shift from openness that increases their own vulnerability to a more creative and flexible approach that provides greater policy autonomy.

Economics and Dishonesty
Nov 14th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik

Economics is a subject where the ruling classes are forever trying to promote ideologically-motivated explanations in lieu of scientific ones. These explanations of course can be, and have been, fitted into an integrated totality of an alternative non-scientific theoretical structure that Marx had called "vulgar economy" as distinct from classical political economy.

The Continuing Tax Gift to Big Indian Companies
Oct 4th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The Indian tax system is heavily weighted in favour of large corporations, and has become even more so in recent times.

First Quarter GDP Estimates for 2022-23
Sep 12th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik

The estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the April-June quarter released by the government on August 31 paint a dismal picture of the Indian economy. Since the GDP in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) shows an increase of 13.5 per cent over the first quarter GDP a year ago, and since 13.5 per cent appears an impressive figure, official spokespersons have been putting a cheerful gloss over it.

On Loan apps and Crypto Criminals
Aug 31st 2022, C. P. Chandrasekhar

India's enforcement directorate, still preoccupied with unearthing corruption and money laundering among opposition politicians, has decided to turn its attention to those involved in the crypto business in the country as well.

Capital Flight from Emerging Markets
Jul 26th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The recent exit of portfolio capital from emerging markets reveals the vulnerability built up over the years when excess liquidity originating in the developed countries spilt over into global markets.

Scandinavia and Imperialism
Jul 18th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik

There are many misconceptions about Scandinavian capitalism. A very common one is the belief that since the Scandinavian countries developed vigorous capitalist economies, without ever having acquired any colonies of their own, they constitute a clear refutation of the claim that capitalist development necessarily requires imperialism.

Are Global Commodity Prices Responsible for the Current Crises in Emerging Markets
Jul 12th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Food and fuel price increases have wreaked a lot of damage and generated inflationary pressures in many economies. However, the current debt problems of so many developing countries cannot be blamed on these higher prices.

"Heads I Win, Tails You Lose"
Jun 20th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik

The craftiness of imperialism is boundless. In several countries of the world at present there are neo-fascist governments, propped up by their respective big bourgeoisies (all aligned to globalized capital), and implementing neo-liberal policies with their characteristic ruthlessness; in many other countries there are neo-fascist outfits attempting to get into power by promising to their big bourgeois patrons that they would do the same if in power.

Neo-Liberalism and Anti-Inflationary Policy
Jun 6th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik

Central banks all over the capitalist world are raising, or are about to raise, interest rates as a means of countering the currently rampant inflation, which is certain to push a world economy that is barely recovering from the effect of the pandemic, back towards stagnation and greater unemployment.

Who Controls Renewable Energy Technology?
May 17th 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The concentration of technology and tacit knowledge related to renewable energy can emerge as an additional constraint to its wider adoption in many low and middle income countries.

The Inhumanity of Capitalism
May 16th 2022, Prabhat Patnaik

For over two years now, the world has been facing a pandemic the like of which has not been seen for a century, and which has already taken 15 million lives according to the WHO, without being anywhere near an end.

Fiddling While India's Workers Burn
May 11th 2022, Jayati Ghosh

More frequent and intense heat waves are poised to become bigger killers in the Indian subcontinent than the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. But the government is essentially leaving people to fend for themselves in a foreseeable tragedy, and envisages continued investment in fossil fuels for decades to come.

Limits of a High Interest Rate Policy as Initiated in India
May 9th 2022, Sunanda Sen

The announcement, on May 4, for a 40 bp raise in the policy Repo rate along with a 50 basis point rise in the cash-reserve ratio by the Reserve Bank of India is claimed officially as a measure to put a rein to current inflation, currently fuelled by the rising food prices rising at 7.68%, oil and fats at 18.79% and vegetables at 11.64% over the same month.

So what’s the Actual Rate of Inflation?
Mar 22nd 2022. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The inflation rates according to the Wholesale Price Index and the Consumer Price Index have diverged substantially in the recent past. In addition to weighting differences, this could reflect underlying macroeconomic changes in the Indian economy.

US Inflation and India's Economic Recovery
Dec 20th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik

Accelerating inflation in the US economy is going to cast a further shadow on India's economic recovery which is already threatened by the persistently depressed levels of consumption. The finance ministry, however, blithely ignored this aspect while making its fantastic claims about recovery in India.

State Finances: The looming crisis
Dec 14th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Subject to a fiscal squeeze even before the economic contraction that accompanied the Covid-19 pandemic, state governments are now facing a fiscal crisis that is bound to drag down the economy.

India's Post-pandemic Economic Recovery
Dec 13th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik

While the government claims that the Indian economy is displaying a robust recovery with double digit growth rates, it is only natural that the economy will bounce back to normal after a trough. But when compared to the pre-pandemic fiscal year, the economy is actually on a downward trend.

A 'Mini-cycle' in the Commodities Sphere?
Nov 16th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Global commodity prices are rising, driven by the revival in economic activity as the pandemic wanes, supply constraints and new demand stemming from sources such as the energy transition. The question is whether the surge will be transitory or persist for a long time.

The Scourge of Demonetisation
Nov 15th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik

No single economic measure in post-independence India has been as devastating and as utterly futile as the demonetisation of currency notes, decreed by the Modi government in 2016. That it did not achieve its stated objectives was not unforeseen, rather it was quite obvious.

India's Coal Crisis
Nov 5th 2021, C.P. Chandrasekhar

Coal inventories with thermal power plants in India had recently fallen to levels at which major country-wide power outages seemed inevitable. Although it has, fortunately, not materialized yet, why such a situation should arise in the country with the 5th largest coal reserves, is the question.

Food Stocks, Bio-fuels and Hunger
Oct 25th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik

The Modi government's attempt to explain India's slipping from 94 in 2020 to 101 in 2021 on the world hunger index, by questioning its methodology is jejune enough; but even more shocking is its total inability to see the reason behind the acute hunger in the country.

Mixed Signals on the Inflation Front
Oct 19th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

While the world grapples with inflation, September 2021 figures from India seem to suggest that consumer prices are in deceleration mode. But this may just be a lull before an impending storm.

Measuring Unemployment Trends in India
Oct 18th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik

In India only a tiny segment of work-force has full-time employment; there is no close correspondence between the magnitude of work and the number of working people. Thus, official statistics in India have for long used not one, but several measures of unemployment, but none of them is any good at capturing unemployment trends.

The Scandal of Old-age Pensions
Sep 6th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik

Any increase in the amount of monthly pension given by the centre to the elderly under the National Social Assistance Programme has been ruled out in the parliament. This paltry sum offered to aged citizens is not even inflation adjusted and has not changed in years. Moreover, many people who should be receiving it do not even do so.

The Household and the State
Aug 16th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik

The erroneous analogy drawn between the household and the state is meant to keep fiscal deficit and hence, government expenditure restrained, even in situations of mass unemployment owing to a deficiency of aggregate demand and this analogy is, thus, extremely dangerous.

Three Decades of Economic Liberalization
Aug 2nd 2021, Prabhat Patnaik

30 years since the adoption of neoliberal policies, the belief that liberalization greatly boosted India's GDP growth rate even though it increased inequality, is commonly accepted by not just the votaries of liberalization, but even its critics. However, that is an entirely wrong perception.

The Neoliberal Reforms of 1991 didn't Work as Claimed
Jul 26th 2021, Jayati Ghosh

There is a common trope, fed especially to generations born after 1991, that economic progress and modernization in India really occurred only after ‘liberalizing' economic reforms were introduced three decades ago. This is a travesty of the truth; progress in India has been minimal or even non-existent.

Is Socialisation of Investment Enough
Jul 5th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik

Keynes believed that mass unemployment was the chief flaw in the capitalist system; it could lead to its rejection and hence supersession. He thought socialisation of investment within the capitalist system was enough to overcome its flaws and socialism was unnecessary.

The Poverty of Economic Conservatism
Jun 28th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik

During the pandemic when millions lost their incomes and livelihood support, the Modi government did not provide any cash transfer to the people. This niggardliness is born out of a blind faith in policy conservatism, the bankruptcy of which is now visible to all.

The Case of the Missing Vaccines
Jun 7th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik

As India faces an acute vaccine shortage, the erroneous impression is being made that it is due to a sudden spurt in vaccine demand as vaccination is now open for 18-44 group as well. However, the excess demand for vaccines is not from the demand side as presumed, but from the supply side.

The Proposal for a Minimum Global Corporate Tax Rate
May 31st 2021, Prabhat Patnaik

The Biden administration and its huge stimulus package which is to be financed by raising corporate tax rates, represents a shift from neoliberalism. The consequences of imposition of austerity on the third world, even as social democratic measures are implemented in the metropolis, are yet to be seen.

Patents versus the People
May 17th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik

Patents work by creating an artificial scarcity so that innovating firms earn supernormal profits. But the anti-Covid vaccines were developed through public funded research and not by private firm's money. When thousands are dying around the world, saving lives has priority over firms’ profits, for which patents on vaccines must be removed.

For Free Universal Vaccination Against Covid-19
May 10th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik

The Modi government has mindlessly liberalized vaccine distribution, compelling state governments and private hospitals to buy vaccines directly from firms at prices determined by the latter, when the fury of the pandemic is raging and urgent vaccination is necessary.

An Issue of Lives Versus Livelihoods
May 6th 2021, Sunanda Sen

With lockdowns being imposed again, a large number of informal workers, including migrants, will lose their livelihoods and face a bleak future again like they did last year. That the situations faced by India's migrants are not a matter of concern in policy making is quite apparent.

The Scandal of Covid-vaccine Pricing
May 3rd 2021, Prabhat Patnaik

When the country is grappling with the worst health crisis it has faced in a century, the Covid-vaccine producers have decided to seize the opportunity to go on a profiteering spree, taking advantage of the Modi government’s incompetence or complicity.

Covid-19 in India – profits before people
Apr 30th 2021, Jayati Ghosh

The unfolding pandemic horror in India has many causes, including the complacency, inaction and irresponsibility of government leaders and the continued election rallies, when the threat of new mutant variants was evident.

The Resurgence of Inflation
Apr 26th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik

The official wholesale price index for March 2021 is 7.39 % higher than that for March 2020. Such a high rate of inflation has not been seen in India for over 8 years. The country is clearly witnessing an inflationary upsurge and it has been building up for some time.

Biden’s Package and its Pitfalls
Apr 13th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik

The Biden fiscal package will benefit the US economy but could actually harm developing countries, unless global finance is restrained.

A Lifeline for the News Business
Feb 25th 2021, C. P. Chandrasekhar

A process to curb internet firms from freeriding, started by the Australian competition commission, might culminate in a legislation whereby search engines and social media platforms would have to pay publishers whose content they direct users to. It shall affect Google and Facebook initially, but is likely to cover the likes of Apple News over time.

Wrecking Fiscal Federalism
Jan 26th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The central government's cynical and expropriative attitude to the states has meant the wrecking of fiscal federalism, with worrying consequences for India's future.

Fussing over a Non-budget 
Jan 25th 2021, C.P. Chandrasekhar

The financial year 2020-21 warranted a change in the stance of the government, with a shift away from fiscal conservatism to a more proactive fiscal policy, but the NDA government has persisted with its neoliberal fiscal stance, resulting in collapsing revenues and stagnant expenditures.

Prepare for a Surge in Global Inequality
Jan 12th 2021. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The differential ability, resulting from preexisting global inequality, to address the Covid crisis with increased government spending is likely to substantially worsen those inequalities.

Misleading Economic Signals
Jan 11th 2021, C.P. Chandrasekhar

Financial indicators are hugely favourable from the point of view of those who benefit from them even when the real economy is performing badly. Thus, in this Covid-afflicted year, amidst economic contraction, both the stock market returns as well as the stock of forex reserves in India registered great increases.

The Timidity-cum-Callousness of the Modi Government
Jan 11th 2021, Prabhat Patnaik

The Modi government must be the most timid in the world vis-à-vis international finance capital and the most callous vis-à-vis the working people of the country. The government's economic policy during the pandemic bears ample testimony to this fact.

The Dangers of Misplaced Optimism
Dec 9th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar

As the government sticks to recovery hype with the fall in the level of contraction from 23.9% in the 1st quarter of FY 2020-21 to 7.5% in the 2nd quarter, the danger is that such optimism would provide the justification to avoid adoption of the measures crucially needed to pull the economy out of recession.

The Final Push?
Dec 9th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar

A report of an internal working group set up by the RBI is reconsidering allowing entry of corporate players into India's banking space, which may restrict access to credit of agriculture and small business sectors and encourage advances based on criteria not focusing on risk management.

What the Second Quarter GDP Estimates Reveal
Dec 7th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik

Government spokespersons exhibited much euphoria over "only" a 7.5% drop in growth over the second quarter, compared to that of 2019-20, although with the 23.9% first quarter drop, the talk had been of a "stronger recovery". However, even this recovery appears both dubious and immiserizing.

Immiserization behind the Recovery
Nov 23rd 2020, Prabhat Patnaik

Ministers as well as the Reserve Bank of India have seen signs of recovery in the Indian economy, but there, of course, had to be a recovery from the deep abyss to which the lockdown had pushed the economy, as some degree of normalcy returned; it is no reflection of any virtue of the government.

Modi on Demonetization
Nov 16th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik

On the fourth anniversary of demonetization that destroyed the informal sector, including peasant agriculture and led to unemployment, Narendra Modi is not only repeating the claim that black money has been curbed, but also taking pride in that destruction.

Covid Debt and the Tax Paradigm 
Oct 20th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

In the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis government debt has been on the rise in countries across the world. When the crisis recedes, recovery would depend on the extent to which governments choose to finance repayment with new taxation of the rich.

Asymmetric Effects of Growth and Stagnation
Oct 12th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik

Growth under capitalism is associated with an increase in absolute poverty and the Indian experience bears this out. The period of neoliberalism in India witnessed rapid capital accumulation and hence rapid growth in GDP and yet this very era saw an increase in absolute poverty.

Time use in India 
Oct 6th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The results of the time use survey of the NSSO reveal expected but nonetheless striking results about how men and women in India spend their time very differently, with women hugely burdened by unpaid work.

The Move towards a de Facto Unitary State
Oct 5th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik

Federalism is one of the basic features of the Indian Constitution, but the tendency of the Centre to encroach on the domain of the states has intensified to such an extent under the Hindutva forces and the corporate-financial oligarchy, that the country is being pushed towards a de facto unitary State.

A Damaged Federal Structure
Oct 5th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar

The process of centralization of financial resources at the expense of the states that had been underway for long has taken on a new intensity under the current government, through the transition to the GST and the Centre's response to the revenue shortfall of the states in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Modi's Agriculture Bills Push Imperialist Agenda
Sep 28th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik

The two bills rammed through parliament last week were not only anti-democratic in nature, but also exploitative. It leaves millions of peasants at the mercy of private buyers by opening them up to monopsonistic exploitation.

A Government Unequal to the Task
Sep 21st 2020, Prabhat Patnaik

When there is a lockdown, and output contracts, it is incumbent on the government to increase or at least maintain its expenditure to reduce the degree of contraction and to enable the population to maintain their consumption needs. However, by reducing the expenditure, the GoI did the exact opposite of what it should have done.

The Indian Economy on the Verge of Collapse
Sep 14th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik

The disaster staring the Indian economy consists not in what we have just experienced, but in what lies ahead and if this disaster is to be avoided, then there has to be a massive injection of demand by the government both through transfers and through direct spending on goods and services.

Unravelling India's Growth Impasse
Sep 11th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar

The 24% contraction in India's GDP is remarkable not only in an absolute sense but also relative to other countries where the pandemic was severe. The stringent country-wide lockdown stopped a host of economic activities from being undertaken and no strong government intervention was done to counter its damaging effects either.

A Guide to Flattening the Curve of Economic Chaos
Sep 3rd 2020, Jayati Ghosh

India has become the global leader in the number of Covid-19 cases and has recorded the worst economic performance in South Asia or even amongst the G20 countries. Wealth tax and taxes on the multinational corporations need to be imposed and urgent action needs to be taken to tackle the situation.

Can India stay with GST? 
Jul 28th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Three years after introduction of the GST, there are no clear signs that this is a regime that can deliver revenue growth of a kind that can justify persisting with it.

What could be wrong with a Fiscal Deficit
Jul 27th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik

Fiscal deficit puts wealth into the hands of capitalists without their doing anything to earn it, thus raising wealth inequalities in the economy. Government spending needs to be financed by a tax on the rich, such as a wealth tax or a profit tax.

The Absurdity of Hiking Oil Prices
Jun 29th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik

Taxing a universal intermediary like oil is the most absurd among all options to reduce fiscal deficit. It will not only severely reduce aggregate demand but will also increase wealth inequality, unlike a wealth-tax.

The Fisc and the Economy
Jun 26th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar

Neoliberal policies geared to incentivize private investors while limiting the fiscal deficit, and the shift to a failed GST regime, had sharply lowered tax revenue growth and curtailed expenditure even prior to Covid. The government is now faced with a fiscal crisis, and the economy is in recession.

A Stock Market Boom amidst a Real Economy Crisis
Jun 22nd 2020, Prabhat Patnaik

The stock market boom amidst a real economic crisis in the US reveals the absolute hegemony of finance in a neoliberal system, which is forced to rely on asset price bubbles to stimulate the economy.

Economic Contraction and the Fiscal Stance of the Indian Government 
Jun 16th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The Modi government is pushing the Indian economy into further contraction through its completely inappropriate conservative fiscal stance.

The Worrisome Return of Capital 
Jun 2nd 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

In April 2020, while 'emerging market economies' remained steeped in the Covid-induced crisis, in a paradoxical turn, equity markets in some of these countries experienced a recovery. That may not be a good sign.

Employment in India: Aggregate demand and structural transformations
Jun 1st 2020, Sunanda Sen

Mainstream economic policies that advocate fiscal-monetary austerity along with financialization and speculative transactions have squeezed the pace of expansion for the real economy. A major impact of above has been the dismal state of employment and job creation in the country.

The Mendacity of the "Rescue Package"
May 24th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik

The utter insensitivity towards the migrant workers, the abrogation of labour laws, the opening up of crucial sectors to foreign capital, all done under the pretext of a "rescue package" are a part of the agenda to please finance capital.

A Fragile Federation under Strain
May 26th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar

Despite invoking wide-ranging emergency powers, the central government has left the task of addressing the Covid pandemic and financing that effort largely to the states. The resulting fiscal crisis threatens the fragile foundations of India's federalism.

Labour Rights are in Free Fall
May 25th 2020, Anamitra Roychowdhury

By suspending labour laws in an undemocratic manner, states are exploiting the unique opportunity provided by the national lockdown. It is time we wake up to its authoritarian rule and resist unitedly.

New Fronts in the US-China Trade War 
May 19th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

As the world grapples with the fall-out of the Covid-crisis, the Trump administration is ramping up its protectionist rhetoric vis-à-vis China. If this leads to new sanctions it would not help the US but worsen the Covid-induced trade crisis.

Outsourcing the Stimulus 
May 18th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar

Aware of its own inaction, the government has outsourced a large part of sorely needed stimulus to RBI and public sector banks. But the latter's aversion to risk is creating multiple roadblocks and it is time the government directly steps in.

The War on Labour
May 18th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik

The brutal suspension of labour laws will not help attract private investment, or raise overall levels of profits. It will, however, lead to a reduction in employment and output for the economy as a whole.

How to Build the Global Green New Deal 
May 12th 2020. Jayati Ghosh

The sharp and rapid increase of inequality due to the Covid-19 pandemic is driving home the urgency of internationalism. Jayati Ghosh explains how we can change the global economic architecture to enable a Global Green New Deal.

Contours of the Covid-crisis 
May 5th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Early evidence shows that official response to the Covid-induced crisis in the US and Europe may lengthen recession. If the needed fiscal effort is not put in place even a delayed recovery may prove elusive.

It Takes Two to Tango: Can monetary stimulus compensate for an inadequate fiscal stimulus in India? 
May 4th 2020. Parthapratim Pal & Partha Ray

Monetary policy can only make credit cheaper, it cannot bring money into the hands of workers. It cannot compensate for a fiscal stimuli, especially when India is in a liquidity trap. For such an unprecedented crisis, fiscal spending has been highly inadequate.

What Must India do now to address the Coronavirus Crisis
Apr 27th 2020, Dipa Sinha, Prasenjit Bose and Rohit

Varied intensity of new cases across states warrants a calibrated and state-specific lockdown exit strategy. Owing to disruption in every sector the country needs a doubling-down on food and cash transfers and an overhaul of fiscal and monetary strategy.

Economic Policy in the Age of Covid
Apr 7th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar

At a time when the economy is in freefall absent fiscal push from the Centre only suggests a desire to favour the rich; those forces who risk losing a part of surplus in taxation to finance government debt.

COVID-19 and Indian Economy: From rolling down the hill to falling off the cliff 
Apr 2nd 2020. Jayati Ghosh

As the pandemic unfolds, the Indian economy is falling off a cliff. There is an immediate need for massive public spending beyond conventional fiscal standards. There is also a need for a global plan for significant debt reduction, massive increase in global liquidity, more aid and moratoriums to survive this crisis.

Why have Indian Banks become Financially Fragile?
Mar 16th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik

The crisis at Yes Bank is only the concentrated expression of the vastly increased financial fragility in Indian Banking. The very nature of a neo-liberal economy requires financial instability for sustaining a boom.

The Cost of a Yes to a Bank Rescue act
Mar 11th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar

The Yes Bank plan is risky and there is little doubt that the SBI is acting on government's bidding. But given the uncertain investor support in a gloomy economy, the success of this restructuring exercise in not guaranteed.

Economy Sliding into Stagnation
Mar 8th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik

The Indian economy is sliding into a serious state of stagnation. Suppressed by industrial repression and a world economy at the dead-end of neo-liberalization, the economy desperately requires a powerful fiscal intervention to be revived.

A Shot in the Arm for Virtual Currencies
Mar 6th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar

The recent Supreme Court's judgement has recharged the virtual currency eco-system in India. The power of the RBI to supercede this judgement by banning VCs may not pass the test of proportionality.

The Future of Indian Finance
Feb 18th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar

The Budget speech includes measures that could fundamentally transform of India's state-regulated financial sector. With the government clearly keen on washing its hands of the mess in the public banking system, privatization could be the end result.

Capitalism, Socialism and Over-production
Feb 17th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik

Over-production under capitalism occurs because of speculative investments and the multiplier effect that follows. As both these factors are eliminated under socialism, Soviet Union, with all its defects, never experienced unemployment.

Budget 2020-21: Short-term "Fixes" endangering the economy
Feb 10th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik

Expenditure cuts in rural welfare sectors and disinvestment in public institutions show that the Modi government is interested merely in short-term fixes. It is too timid to circumvent the constraints of international finance capital and provide a viable economic solution.

Catering to Finance alone cannot Qualify India as a Democracy
Feb 7th 2020, Sunanda Sen

Budget 2020 clearly shows that the privileges enjoyed by finance in terms of their ability to influence policies in their favour remain rather exclusive. Can the practice of ignoring the voices of the working population and the poor be viewed as a legitimate democratic process?

The Road to Dominance
Feb 4th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar

Reliance industries has achieved success through a combination of aggressive investments, predatory pricing and consolidations. Government policies favouring its interests ensures that it holds out well even as the economy is in crisis.

Opacity in India's Budget Numbers will have Major Implications for Investors 
Feb 3rd 2020, Jayati Ghosh

Budget 2020 has turned out to be a huge disappointment. The central government has not only made budget numbers even more opaque but also added to the recessionary tendencies in the Indian economy, starving critical social sectors of demand-generating funds.

Bereft of Macroeconomic Vision
Feb 3rd 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar

The government has been unable to raise its spending at a time when circumstances demand a proactive fiscal policy. This demonstrates the absence of any macroeconomic vision, clear in the budget speech that only promises to privilege wealth creation.

Smokescreen of Numbers
Feb 3rd 2020, Jayati Ghosh

Despite blatant attempts to fudge the data, it is clear that Budget 2020 will not provide the required fiscal stimulus to kick-start the economy. The few benefits will go to a handful of crony capitalists as the economic conditions worsen.

Layers within the Corporate-financial Oligarchy
Feb 3rd 2020, Prabhat Patnaik

Fascist regimes are based on solid support of monopoly capital and the contradictions within it. It is no surprise that even in the midst of crisis, Modi government’s only concern is corporate gains through massive tax cuts.

Budget 2020: No sense of direction
Feb 2nd 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar

Budget 2020 does nothing for either growth or welfare. Incentives for wealth creation suggests that the government is looking to the private sector while the latter waits for government to take the lead.

Can the RBI fill the Budgetary Hole?
Jan 30th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar

The Finance Minister cannot credibly provide for Budget 2020 from resources of the central bank. The government is unlikely to obtain windfall gain from interest and net incomes of RBI of the magnitude recorded in 2018-19.

Sitharaman should be stepping up Spending, but it's too much to wish for
Jan 29th 2020, Jayati Ghosh

Instead of increasing public spending to pull the economy up, the Modi government till now has been in denial. Admitting to a higher fiscal deficit and increasing expenditure would help, but it may be too much to wish for.

Government Finances 2019-20 
Jan 28th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

After last years' experience of fudged fiscal statements, Union Budget numbers are suspect. The fear is that falling revenues will once again lead to reduced public spending, a disastrous trend for the economy.

The Scramble for Resources
Jan 27th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar

Given the obsession to limit dressed up fiscal deficit figure and unable to think of better responses to the growth slowdown than tax cuts, it is more than likely that better economic management and ways to address the intensifying stagflation would not be the focus of Sitharaman's Budget.

A Budget that cannot deliver
Jan 27th 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar

With no credible source of meeting revenue shortfall, economic slowdown is likely to intensity in the next financial year, even as Sitharaman struggles with Modi's and Jaitley's fiscal consolidation fixation.

India's Shameful Record on Wealth Inequality
Jan 27th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik

"The government's fiscal policy must be blamed for India's worsening wealth inequality. With a substantial reduction in taxes on the rich, more investment by capitalists has been accompanied by an increase in their wealth."

Nirmal Sitharaman’s Challenge: Budgeting with diminished revenues
Jan 23rd 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar

As Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman prepares to present her second budget, growth is decelerating sharply, revenues are lagging behind targets, the government's off-budget transactions that make a mockery of budget estimates are being revealed, and ambitious plans to sell public sector equity are proving difficult to realise.

Revisiting the NBFC Crisis 
Jan 13th 2020. C.P. Chandrasekhar

Even while the effort to resolve the crisis of NPAs was underway, India's financial sector was overwhelmed by failures of large non-bank financial companies. Apart from poor financial management and downright fraud, there were structural reasons why these institutions accumulated bad assets, which are often ignored.

JG Interview with Sampath- The Hindu 
Jan 7th 2020.

In an interview with The Hindu, Jayati Ghosh talks about her life experiences, her views about global economic slowdown and the role of fiscal deficit in resolving demand scarcity, and the importance of JNU within a system of crony capitalism.

Fiscal Fallacies
Jan 6th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik

Capitalists' opposition to State intervention arises not because of any valid economic reasons but because of their "class instinct". Programmes such as Jeremy Corbyn is putting forward would undermine the social legitimacy of capitalism.

Demand-constrained versus Supply-constrained Systems
Jan 5th 2020, Prabhat Patnaik

Unemployment and food shortage that plague the neo-liberal economies of today are indeed effects of a demand-constrained system. Essentially characterised by underutilized capacity, capitalism can never have a shortage of finance, which is artificially imposed by international finance capital.

A Self-made Fiscal Trap
Jan 1st 2020, C.P. Chandrasekhar

Instead of compensating for falling private demand, the government is cutting taxes and zealously sticking to its fiscal deficit target. This is proving to be a recipe for disaster, further shrinking public spending and slowing down already sluggish growth.

The Rise in Inflation Rate
Dec 23rd 2019, Prabhat Patnaik

The current inflation does not indicate excessive demand; rather it is caused by decline in output of several commodities relative to shrinking purchasing power. Reducing aggregate demand will only worsen growth-slowdown without affecting inflation in any way.

Missing the Big Picture: Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman on the "Great Slowdown"
Dec 22nd 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar

In their recent working paper, Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman correctly recognise the growth slowdown afflicting the Indian economy, but fail to see it as the result of a deep structural crisis worsened by neoliberal reform that constrains demand.

The Crisis in Manufacturing
Dec 17th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The slowdown in registered manufacturing draws attention to the structural crisis afflicting the Indian economy, which is both generalised and deep.

The Perversity of the Neo-Liberal Fiscal Regime
Dec 16th 2019, Prabhat Patnaik

As the economy slows down, the Modi government would rather squeeze the state and cut welfare expenditure directed towards the poor than stand up to finance capital under a neo-liberal regime.

Claims versus Reality: Who benefits from government funded health insurance?
Dec 5th 2019, Ankur Verma

Data from the recent survey show that health insurance coverage in India has not expanded at all between 2014 and 2018. Moreover, the benefits of health insurance disproportionately accrue to relatively richer households while the poor are left high and dry.

What Really Happened to Public Spending in 2018-19? 
Dec 3rd 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Faced with dwindling revenues in 2018-19, the government chose to discreetly slash expenditure, with burden of the cuts falling disproportionately on sectors of social and developmental importance and on the states.

When Evidence is Anti-national 
Nov 27th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar

The government's decision to hold back results of the official consumer expenditure survey is another move on its part to suppress information indicative of poor economic performance under its watch.

Household Savings in Troubled Times 
Nov 19th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

"Financial uncertainty and slowing income growth are driving household savings out of bank deposits and increasing reliance on borrowings from NBFCs. With NBFCs under stress this can lead to a recession unless measures are taken to stimulate demand."

The Argument about Competitiveness
Nov 18th 2019, Prabhat Patnaik

Support for a free trade agreement which creates unemployment, or lower incomes for the peasantry, cannot be justified under any circumstance. Prabhat Patnaik argues that people were right demanding that the government should come out of the RCEP.

The Changing Nature of Public Employment 
Nov 5th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Indian labour force surveys indicate an increase in public employment, but very little of this is increase in good quality jobs. Instead, most new jobs are of underpaid women workers without proper conditions.

RCEP and Make in India dreams
Oct 31st 2019, Smitha Francis

In the absence of strategic policy support that help build up indigenous capabilities and create the incentives for localisation, extensive liberalization through RCEP will only worsen domestic production, lower export and FDI flows and compromise national security for India.

Banking Jitters
Oct 18th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar

RBI's "clarification" that depositors should not succumb to rumours of impending bank failures is overly optimistic, suggesting that the PMCB crisis is an outlier. In fact, the current precarious situation has deeper roots in the neoliberal transformation of public banking since the 1990s, creating an environment that breeds delinquency and fraud.

A Tax Policy that could Work
Oct 14th 2019, Jayati Ghosh

"ICRICT's proposal of unitary taxation on MNCs would not only ensure that multinational companies pay their fair share of taxes but also help the Indian government tackle declining tax revenues without adopting regressive tax measures."

The Burden of Public Spending 
Oct 10th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

"Central governments' tightening control on fiscal resources is preventing state governments from undertaking the much-needed public spending which have recently propped up economic activity."

A Counter-productive Measure
Oct 9th 2019, Prabhat Patnaik

The Modi government's "fiscal stimulus" in the form of corporate tax cut is likely to aggravate the economic crisis. What needs to be done is the opposite: an increase in government welfare expenditure financed by taxing the rich.

The Opposite of what was Needed
Sep 30th 2019, Prabhat Patnaik

The Modi government's "stimulus" measure in the form of corporate tax concessions will aggravate the slowdown instead of overcoming it and worsen in India.

Official Reforms and India's Real Economy
Sep 24th 2019, Sunanda Sen

Sops in the form of corporate tax cuts will only temporarily stimulate the stock market, and will not do anything to reverse the tendencies for the stagnation in the Indian economy.

Sops that are no Stimulus
Sep 23rd 2019, C. P. Chandrasekhar

Cutting corporate taxes will do little to address slowing investment and output in a context of low aggregate demand.

Big Banks not a Solution
Sep 11th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar

Bank consolidation would neither spur credit growth nor address the factors that led to the large NPA burden that weakened banks.

What Can the Government Do to Revive India's Real Economy?
Sep 5th 2019, Sunanda Sen

The ailing Indian economy has concerns that goes beyond GDP growth and the plunging financial sector.

Hardly the Brick and Mortar of a Revival
Aug 30th 2019, Jayati Ghosh

The recent measures announced by the Finance Minister to reverse the economic slowdown do not address the basic problem of inadequate demand in the Indian economy.

Troubling Features of the GST Regime 
Aug 27th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The Goods and Services Tax regime appears to have reduced the resource generating capacity of the states and contributed to worsening inter-state inequality.

Developing Asia needs a New Economic Paradigms 
Aug 14th 2019, Jayati Ghosh

Developing Asia would be a major beneficiary of a Global Green New Deal based on an extensive role for public investment. Trying to incentivise private investment, as proposed by OECD and G20, is unlikely to work.

IBC Unravelled
Aug 6th, 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar

The delayed resolution of the Essar Steel debt default case reveals a problem at the core of the IBC process - unclear specification of how the loss burden should be shared among the players encourages them to game the system.

The Structure of Corporate Finance 
Jul 17th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

New flow-of-funds data point not to a change in financing pattern of the corporate sector but to the depressed investment environment in the economy.

India's GDP Growth in the Recent Period
Jun 21st 2019, Prabhat Patnaik

Prabhat Patnaik argues that, other than for a few years, the Indian economy has not really performed much better after liberalization compared to before: the output growth rate scarcely moved up, while unemployment and inequality worsened.

Gendered Labour Markets and Capitalist Accumulations 
May 17th 2019, Jayati Ghosh

Jayati Ghosh discusses how social constructions of gender affect macroeconomic processes, for example through varying work participation rates and migration patterns.

The NYAY Scheme of the Congress
Apr 8th 2019, Prabhat Patnaik

Prabhat Patnaik argues that the NYAY scheme of the Congress is a form of "charity" rather than establishing an economic right to decent living conditions. But in the current neo-liberal regime, any transfers to the poor are welcome, as long as they do not involve cuts in other social spending.

The Abysmal State of Economic Decision Making
Mar 25th 2019, Prabhat Patnaik

Prabhat Patnaik reveals the abysmal state of economic decision making under the Modi government. He argues that while the RBI should be autonomous of the government it must be answerable to the people and the parliament.

Housing Market Mayhem
Mar 12th 2019, C.P. Chandrasekhar

C.P. Chandrasekhar argues that the reduction in GST rates for the housing sector is primarily directed towards addressing the concerns of real estate developers who have generated excess inventories because of easy excess to credit and high profit expectations.

Is the Banking Sector out of the Woods yet? 
Feb 26th 2019, Prasenjit Bose and Zico Dasgupta

The NDA regime has been characterised by a steep rise in NPAs and frauds, and a misguided view of ‘corrective action’.

The Subversion of MGNREGs
Feb 21st 2019, Prabhat Patnaik

Prabhat Patnaik asserts that given the context of the rapid increase in unemployment in the country, MGNREGS could be an effective weapon against such unemployment, because of its high multiplier effects.

Budget 2019-20: Will it help India's farmers?
Feb 4th 2019, Jayati Ghosh
The interim budget 2019-20 is unlikely to bring relief to farmers and secure their approval for the coming elections. The approach to farmers in this Budget reaffirms the Modi government's tendency to rely on optics and jumlas rather than actual spending and concrete policies.
The Boundaries of Welfare
Feb 4th 2019, Prabhat Patnaik
Interim budget indicates that the government's electoral strategy is to win over the 'intermediate classes' while ignoring the poor.
On the Proposal for A Universal Basic Income
Feb 1st 2019, Prabhat Patnaik

Income support through 'universal basic income' has to be in addition to the existing welfare schemes and not replace these schemes. The expansion of public delivery of good quality basic services remains essential.

The Motivated Murder of India's Statistical System
Jan 31st 2019, Jayati Ghosh

Government's suppression of all the relevant statistics is harming citizens, economy and the government itself.

Here's what Modi's 2019 Budget can - but won't - do about India's Jobs Crisis
Jan 30th 2019, Jayati Ghosh

Constraints imposed by the FRBM Act on fiscal and revenue deficit are just an excuse used by the government to hide its unwillingness to act on urgent and important public issues like employment crisis. In reality, government constantly cheats on the FRBM Act, through increased "off-budget" expenditures, misstatement of receipts, and holding back payments that pushes the debt onto other entities.

The Mistaken Obsession with the Fiscal Deficit
Jan 29th, 2019 , C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The central government regularly fudges fiscal data, to pretend to meet the FRBM Act targets. This messes up public companies, but does it really matter for the macroeconomy?

A Misleading Debate
Jan 10th 2019, Prabhat Patnaik

The government's desire to use RBI’s reserve is based on the erroneous theoretical understanding. This faulty formulation results from the need to avoid upsetting global finance

Do 'Markets' talk sense?
Dec 20th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar

Markets never were nor can be “rational”, they cannot be sensible enough to discipline governments and central banks to do the right thing. Rather, they have in recent decades forced central banks to adopt measures that fuel speculation, and are therefore patently wrong.

A Curious Divergence 
Nov 20th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
An inadequately analysed but striking divergence in the services sector's contribution to GDP and employment growth is a pointer to the weaknesses inherent in India's services-led growth model.
Who Should Control India’s Central Bank?
Nov 15th 2018, Jayati Ghosh
The standoff between India's government and the Reserve Bank of India isn't problematic because of the risk of infringing on central-bank independence. It is problematic because, rather than fighting to protect the public interest, the government's goal is to revive irresponsible bank lending, protect its cronies, and win votes.
The Modi Government's Spat with the RBI
Nov 12th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
The Modi government's spat with the RBI is rooted in the structural characteristic of neo-liberalism. This entire debate has arisen as a fall-out of neo-liberalism, of the contradictions that inevitably arise in a neo-liberal economy between the compulsion on the part of the government to please international finance and its need to win elections. Expenditures have to be stepped up for the latter, while international finance disapproves of such stepping up.
The Government-RBI Stand-off
Nov 6th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
The current discourse around government-RBI relations suggests as if there are only two choices, one where market determines RBI policy and the other where government determines RBI policy. However, the root of the problem lies in the structure of the neo-liberal regime itself, which allows too few policy instruments to achieve a number of objectives.
India's Wealthy Barely Pay Taxes 
Nov 6th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
India has one of the most unequal wealth distributions in the world. The annual Global Wealth Report indicates that wealth inequality in India is only slightly below Russia, which is widely recognised to be the most unequal. Data shows that the richest are paying a falling share of the income taxes. The inability to tax high net worth individuals – or to collect corporation tax from profitable companies as expected – in turn means that the government has turned to relying more and more on indirect taxation which is much more regressive and puts the burden of raising fiscal resources onto common people.
India's Central Bank and Finance Ministry Must Introspect Before Rushing to Battle
Nov 5th 2018, Sunanda Sen
The conflict represents the need for an honest attempt to identify lapses in financial governance and remedies that do not encroach on each other's responsibilities as well as rights.
The Tumbling Rupee
Nov 1st 2018, Prasenjit Bose and Zico Dasgupta
Unless policy measures address the structural problems underlying India's current account imbalance, piecemeal steps like tariff hikes would fail to stall the tumbling rupee. There is an urgent need to bring down the import intensity of the growth process it, besides gradually moving away from high fossil fuel dependence over the longer term. It is high time to impose some curbs on volatile capital flows, which aids and abets bubble-building only to inflict currency meltdowns in future.
Is "Formalisation" Possible? 
Oct 23rd 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The clamour for 'formalising' non-agricultural economic activity assumes that the unorganised sector is an early and backward 'stage' in the organisation of economic activity. In practice the unorganised sector exists because organised employment fails to grow.
Ayushman Bharat
Oct 1st 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
The Modi government's claim of ushering in the largest healthcare scheme in the world is completely vacuous. The chosen method of enlarging healthcare access to the poor is wrong both because of the route chosen (the insurance route which benefits insurance companies more than it benefits the patients) as well as because of the ridiculously paltry financial provision.
India's External Vulnerability 
Sep 26th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
While the rise in oil prices explains the sudden deterioration of the current account balance in India's external payments, it also signals the vulnerability to inevitable shocks that is inherent in the changing structure of India's external trade relations.
Whither Indian Economy?
Sep 24th 2018, Sunanda Sen
While there are ongoing discussions on rupee depreciation amidst an atmosphere of apprehension about the economy and polity of the country, official sources have continued to deny any possible threat to the economy. The defensive position advanced from the official quarters do not, however, stand scrutiny if one recognises the fact that none of those indicators of a robust economy will be sustainable in the face of slippages running through the economy.
The Larger Crisis that NPAs Signal
Sep 17th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Desperate attempts to prevent liquidation of power sector assets in companies that are defaulters point to a deeper crisis afflicting neoliberal growth. A sector that was plagued by shortages was opened up to private participation, leading to rapid expansion in the expectation of large profits from liberalised prices. Public sector banks were called upon to finance that expansion with the government being complicit. Now, however, firms find themselves trapped between inadequate demand at prevailing prices and rising costs that precipitate default.
Factory Workers in India
Aug 14th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The number of workers in the industrial factory sector in India has grown since 2005-06, but other trends suggest that the bargaining power of such workers remains low.
The State of the Economy
Jul 23rd 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
The Indian Economy is facing remarkable combination of stagnation, inflation and a burgeoning trade deficit which has been erroneously attributed to the rise in oil prices alone.
Did Developing Countries Really Recover from the Global Crisis?
Jul 17th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
A decade after the Global Financial Crisis, developing countries still bear the scars in the form of lower growth and lower investment rates.
Keynes or New-Keynesian: Why not Teach Both?
Jun 27th 2018, Rohit Azad
There is a need for plurality in macroeconomic education now than ever before for vibrant policymaking and open minded academic engagements. The difference between Keynes and New-Keynesian is not only in their policy prescription but their understanding of capitalism is completely at odds with each other.
George Soros on the Current Conjuncture
Jun 25th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
Factors like the U.S. sucking out finance capital from the rest of the world; the appreciating dollar; the looming crisis for the third world; the refugee problem for Europe are together pushing world capitalism into a serious crisis as put by George Soros. A Marshall plan may save the system but the basic foundations of capitalism are against this proposal.
The Government is lying to you about the Reasons behind High Cost of Diesel & Petrol
Jun 20th 2018, Rohit Azad
With the comical cuts in oil prices in India, an international comparison with neighbouring countries shows that the petrol and diesel prices in India are the highest in the region. While a rise in crude oil prices is borne by the consumers, the benefit of a fall doesn't follow the same route. A break up of oil prices and taxation throws light at the picture.
The Invisible Class
Jun 20th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
The peasantry has been dubbed as the 'invisible class' for the simple reason that it has been outrightly ignored. A basic comparison of the per capita GDP of this invisible class across two years using the Economic Survey 2017-18 gives veracity to these claims.
Has Donald Trump Already Changed US Trade?
Jun 19th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Donald Trump is threatening to dismantle the current world trading system, but in his first year US trading patterns show strong continuity with the previous administration.
Shadow Cast by the Rupee
Jun 7th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The rupee has sharply depreciated in the recent weeks giving reason for concern. The external events of rise in oil prices and rate of interest in advanced economies has led to a surge in the current account deficit and capital outflows respectively. The success of 'the liberalization reforms' lies in the huge capital inflows and thus, has enhanced the periodic bouts of the rupee, hinting to symptoms of a bubble economy.
The Misplaced Growth Discourse
Jun 5th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
A close look at the nature of recent high growth rates provides ample cause for caution. The growth shows absence of dynamism and focus is on a few service sectors. It is being driven by consumption expenditure rather than investment which signals a probably fragile and unstable growth process.
Walmart's Gamble and what it means for India
May 29th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar
By taking the majority stake in Flipkart, Walmart has committed itself to bearing losses in the medium term in a desperate gamble to thwart Amazon's rise in India. The casualty will be the small retail business sector, which supports a large volume of self-employed and low-paid workers.
Once again, the Oil Price Scare
May 22nd 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
As oil prices rise again, countries like India that had benefited from relatively low prices in recent years have to reconsider their growth and macroeconomic strategies.
The So-called "Consumers' Interest"
May 21st 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
The argument in the wake of the Walmart-Flipkart deal, that having large multinationals in the sphere serves consumers' interest not only ignores the plight of local producers but is also analytically unsound. "Consumers" are not an entity distinct from the displaced producers and will get affected adversely over time.
Leapfrogging into Services
Apr 26th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The argument that services reflect a new dynamism in India and the IMF’s prescription that the sector can be a driver of growth and development are far-fetched.
Plurality in Teaching Macroeconomics
Apr 18th 2018, Rohit Azad
For vibrant policy making, an open-minded academic engagement between contrasting viewpoints is needed in macroeconomic education. However, there does not even exist a textbook that contrasts these contesting ideas in a tractable manner. This pedagogical paper is an attempt to plug that gap by presenting a comparative study across different traditions in macroeconomics in a unified framework, which can be developed into a semester-long intermediate-level course.
National Income in India: What’s really growing?
Feb 28th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Recent income growth in India has been dominated by sectors that do not reflect real physical output increases – such as finance, insurance and real estate and public administration and defence.
When Business Turns 'Easy'
Feb 28th 2018, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The Modi/Choksi case illustrates how a neoliberal financial policy regime that is aggressively "reformist" creates conditions that make the system vulnerable to fraud and corruption on a huge scale.
Can Banking Recover?
Feb 27th 2018, Jayati Ghosh
Recovery of the banking sector will require stricter adherence to sound banking rules and more transparency from public and private players. And most of all, this applies to the regulators themselves and the government that frames all this.
On the Health Scheme in Budget 2018-19
Feb 13th 2018, Subrata Mukherjee & Subhanil Chowdhury
Neither the union budget nor the National Health Policy 2017 presents any clear and convincing health sector road map. If it is serious about providing health care to even bottom 40% of the population, not only should the government increase its current budgetary allocation substantially but also strengthen the health infrastructure at all levels including a strong regulatory mechanism.
The Economic Survey 2017-18
Feb 4th 2018, Prabhat Patnaik
Like the person on the proverbial tiger, the Indian economy is currently riding a precarious course. The Government of India’s Economic Survey for 2017-18 recognizes this frankly, but its panacea is to keep one’s fingers crossed and hope that the ride continues.
The 2018-19 Union Budget
Feb 3rd 2018, Prabhat Patnaik

The strategy of the current budget seems to be simple: make immense noise about “helping the victimized” but do not give an extra paisa from the budget towards that ends. With the expenditure squeeze being carried out to reduce fiscal deficit, the share of central government spending in GDP is in fact budgeted to fall.

Budget 2018: The Finance Ministry’s Grey Shades of 'Pink'
Feb 2nd 2018, Jayati Ghosh
Even the vaguely "pink" effort in the Economic Survey is whitewashed in the finance minister's Budget speech that is heavily based on stereotypical gender roles for women, and even that completely disappears when we get to the actual budget allocations.
Where's the Money, Mr Jaitley?
Feb 2nd 2018, Jayati Ghosh
This government is especially good at optics, at managing public perceptions to persuade people that it is working for them, rather than doing so. So it is no surprise that Arun Jaitley’s pre-election Budget Speech went on about how much his government cares for the people, the poor, for farmers, for women, for people running small and micro enterprises, and so on.
Budget 2018-19: No money where the mouth is
Feb 2nd 201, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Billed as the last full budget of this second NDA government, Budget 2018 was not expected to surprise. Its primary thrust had to be a show of concern for the large mass of the deprived in India, with some focus on the agricultural sector which by all accounts has been neglected and allowed to languish over the last four years.
Did the FM Deliver for Farmers?
Feb 2nd 2018, Jayati Ghosh

For those with short memories, let's remind ourselves that Arun Jaitley has been promising “top priority to farmers” for a while now.

The Budget and the Farmers: The government's dilemma in 2018
Feb 1st 2018, Jayati Ghosh
Budget 2018 is expected to be famer-oriented, with persistent agricultural distress and near-stagnant farmer income contrary to the promises made by the government. But, even as the election come near, the scale of increased spending that is required for all of this is unlikely to be met, given the self-imposed constraints of "fiscal responsibility".
Shopping Frenzy in the New China
Nov 24th 2017,C.P. Chandrasekhar
The Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba creates a startling sales record on this year's Singles' Day, tapping into the rising consumerism of the upper middle class. The surge may not yield the home market growth needed to rebalance the country's growth.
Indian IT hits a Speed Bump
Nov 21st 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
A sharp deceleration in growth and restricted employment expansion in the IT sector, India's post-liberalisation showpiece, has implications beyond the industry's boundaries.
Moody's Upgrade
Nov 20th 2017,Prabhat Patnaik
The slight upgrade of India’s credit worthiness by Moody, that equates finance with nation, is being celebrated by the media as a mark of Modi’s success, but the criteria it has used to judge are in actuality open assaults by the government on the working population. To transcend such neo-liberal capitalism, the wrongness of this criteria must be understood first.
Engineering a New Crisis
Nov16th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Central banks are deciding to scale back their policy of "quantitative easing" in the form of liquidity infusion through asset purchases, but they are unwilling to commit to a quick unwinding of balance sheets fearing market reaction to a radical change in the easy money environment.
Monitoring the Evolution of Latin American Economies using a Flow-of-funds Framework
Nov 9th 2017, Esteban Peez Caldentey and Manuel Cruz Luzuriaga
Flow-of-funds accounting permits to monitor the financial sector in terms of flows and stocks and to analyze its relationship with the real sector. Traditionally practised in developed nations, this accounting has not experienced a parallel development in developing countries. In order to fill this gap, the paper undertakes the construction of a data base of flow-of-funds account matrices for various Latin American and Asian countries, exemplifying their use for the study of financial crisis in these regions.
Unbalanced Global Growth
Nov 8th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The distribution of the weak global economic recovery since the Great Recession provides little reason for optimism about the future.
The de-digitisation of India
Oct 12th 2017, Jayati Ghosh
The failure of digitisation is the result of the Central government's cart-before-horse attitude to policy, which does not take into account the wider context and the supportive and enabling conditions that must be met for any policy measure to succeed.
Create a Crisis and make it Worse
Oct 12th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The government's proposal to set up an all-powerful entity to solve the NPA problem has serious implications for banks and could leave them vulnerable to, among other things, runs by depositors.
Strangulating the Informal Economy
Oct 12th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
The current slowdown in the economy, aggravated by the persistent world economic crisis, has much to do with the twin coercive instruments of demonetisation and GST wielded by the state to strangulate the informal economy in a bid to "formalise" it.
The Class Content of the Goods and Services Tax
Oct 5th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
In the discussions about GST, the class content of this new tax regime has been missed. Through an overall increase in the taxation of the informal sector i.e. of the petty producers and the small capitalists, it has unleashed the twin process of centralization of political authority and the centralization of capital, which in turn strengthen one another.
A Bull in a China Shop
Sep 26th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
The BJP government, through demonetization and GST, coupled with the world economic situation, it is causing a rare co-occurrence of three phenomena: a stagnation of the countrys' economy, a revival of inflation, and a yawning current account deficit on the balance of payments. As the era of cheap money in the U.S. and elsewhere come to an end, Indian assets might pass into foreign hands.
The Emerging Crisis in Real Estate
Sep 26th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The slow down and partial crisis in India's real estate sector reflects the challenges facing post-reform growth in India.
Downturn Blues
Sep 20th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The most recent deceleration in growth is the result of the inability of the system to sustain the artificial stimuli that the neoliberal policy environment facilitated. It is a problem that does not lend itself to easy resolution.
Problems with Neoclassical Economics
Sep 5th 2017, Amiya Kumar Bagchi
While there are a few examples of successive use of mathematics in forming empirically tested mainstream theorems, excessive misuse of this tool in neoclassical economics leave little coherence between its "rational being" and realism. In fact, many examples prove that it fails to observe the tenets of its own canon, and people are compelled to consume beyond their need and capacity, even in the face of mounting unemployment.
The Truth About Demonetization
Sep 1st 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
The recent RBI report that shows that 99% of the demonetized currency notes have been returned proves false the governments’ claim that the scheme, that shook the whole economy, would cripple the black economy, an argument whose success lay in the demonetized currency not coming back to the system. Moreover, with re-monetization complete, there has been no "flushing out" of black money whatsoever.
The Economy: 70 years after Independence
Aug 30th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Indias' reliance on fortuitous and volatile stimuli to drive growth has resulted in inadequate job creation and widened inequalities while failing to address social deprivation.
A Dangerous Analogy
Aug 24th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
Democracy in India faces a severe threat from the penchant for centralization and uniformity that the Hindutva forces have and which Modi articulated in the Central Hall on July 1 through his misleading analogy between the GST and the integration of princely states by Vallabhbhai Patel during Independence. Such comparison puts a tax reform and democratic revolution on the same platform, confusing biased centralization with unity of the country.
Economy Plunging Headlong into Recession
Aug 16th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
The few days old Volume II of the Economic Survey by Ministry of Finance shows a GVA growth rate much less than that of the previous year, and that too artificially boosted by seasonal variations in non-core sectors. This deceleration is most likely to continue, with growing NPAs and plunging exports, and interest rate cuts will not help in a demand-constrained economy unless the government starts thinking beyond "fiscal rectitude".
What is Really Happening in Indian Manufacturing?
Aug 16th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Data on organised manufacturing production do not really capture the impact of demonetisation and its effects on demand, but looking at some sub-sectors of consumer non-durable goods provides more insight.
Twenty Years after the Asian Financial Crisis
Aug 7th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
It was the free flow of foreign capital through "financial liberalization" that led to the East Asian Crisis of 1997, from which the "tiger economies" have not yet recovered fully. Even now, the augmented foreign reserves of these third world countries remain woefully inadequate to finance debt to foreigners, as the hegemony of international finance capital builds over their own assets.
'Riskless Capitalism' in India: Bank credit and economic activity
Aug 7th 2017, Rohit Azad, Prasenjit Bose and Zico Dasgupta
The Indian growth story of the 2000s' cannot be over-simplistically explained as a result of "market-oriented" reforms. Public sector bank credit-financed investments, particularly in the infrastructure sector, played a significant role in sustaining growth, most crucially after the global economic crisis. Such a growth trajectory, however, proved to be unsustainable with the expansionary phase coming to an end in 2011–12 and bad loans piling up in the banking system.
NPAs: All talk and no action
Aug 4th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The problem of large NPAs of nationalised banks can be traced to the neoliberal reforms in the financial sector and outside, which prevent large government investments in infrastructure and capital-intensive industries that are imperative for development but too difficult a responsibility for the private sector to shoulder.
Growth in the Time of a Credit Squeeze
Aug 1st 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
GDP growth figures for the last few years have camouflaged a deceleration in credit growth that has affected all but the retail loans segment quite adversely.
The Hamburg Fiasco
Jul 19th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
There is no sign of any consensus coming out of the G20 on the need for a mix of globally coordinated policies and a fiscal push to pull the world economy out of recession. What we have once again is a set of statements that says everything and therefore nothing.
Demography and care in Europe: The impact of social relations
Jul 18th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Trends in social relations are both affected by and impact upon economic changes. These in turn have an important bearing on desirable patterns of spending in the care economy, as suggested by an examination of recent marital trends in Europe.
Justice in the Age of Finance
Jul 7th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The very limited Barclays prosecution comes in the wake of a half-hearted investigation effort, which has thus far completely let off all those who took the world economy to the verge of a crisis akin to the Great Depression. It is not clear if anything will finally come out of even this case, which is aimed at merely teaching a lesson to those who hurt a bunch of financial investors by violating insider rules.
The Macroeconomics of Basic Income Grants
Jul 7th 2017, Jayati Ghosh
The idea of "Universal Basic Income", today treated as novel, in fact dates back to Kautilya's Arthashastra and Thomas Mores' Utopia in the 16th century. Milton Friedman's "negative income tax" also revolved around the same idea, which was rightfully criticized by Minsky for inducing inflationary expansion in place of direct welfare schemes. Considering distributional effects, direct job creation is a more effective way to tackle poverty.
China's Labour Market Conundrum
Jul 5th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Has China's labour market reached a point where long years of high growth have led to demand outstripping supply, resulting in a sharp rise in wages?
The Roots of the Agrarian Distress in India
Jun 29th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The policy shifts of the reform era have not been in favor of agriculture. Trade liberalisation, deregulation and a greater role for market forces have not benefited the farmer, who is trapped in a persisting crisis. It is time for today's policy makers to recognise their own disconnect, and learn from the evidence at hand.
The Question of Farm-Loan Waiver
Jun 23rd 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
The primary reason why loan-waiver is being demanded at present is not an output fall owing to any natural calamity. It is the price-fall on account of the bumper harvest that underlies this demand. It is the breaking down of an appropriate institutional mechanism that is responsible for the peasants' distress and periodic demands for loan-waivers.
The Economy under Modi
Jun 20th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
As per official data, half of the country's population witnessed no improvement in real per capita income over the three Modi years. Other indicators like the demand from net exports, Central Government expenditure (as a proportion of nominal GDP) and number of new jobs created in the organized sector, all reflect a gloomy picture of the Indian economy. The government has been keen on keeping finance capital happy while compromising on these matters.
Crop Prices and Farmers' Unrest
Jun 20th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Distressed farmers are demanding loan waivers, but that should not deflect attention from what needs to be done and undone to address the roots of the agrarian crisis.
The GDP Elephant
Jun 6th 2017, Jayati Ghosh
National income is hard to estimate in India where so much activity and employment is in the informal sector. Much of GDP calculation is not purely "technocratic" but relies on judgments and assumptions. As long as our system of national accounting does not clarify the real impact on the economy and the actual degree of deceleration of economic activity, we will remain in the dark.
The Unsustainable US Recovery
Jun 6th 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Even the limited and unsteady recovery of growth in the US a decade after the 2008 crisis is based on an increase in debt that renders it unsustainable.
What the data tells us about 'Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas'?
May 26th 2017, Anamitra Roychowdhury
Modi rose to power by promising development for all, but his policies have fallen short in meeting any of the related targets, especially with respect to employment and livelihoods. A minor increase in farm income was met by the lowest-yet wage increase under MGNREGA. Belying the promises of the Skill India programme, Quarterly Employment Surveys show even greater joblessness. Resource allocation to health and education has seen negligible growth in the past three years. And the government narrative has shifted from development to moral policing.
A Simple Arithmetic
May 25th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
The advance GDP estimates for 2016-17, however calculated, show a grim picture of the economy. The real per capita income of the agriculture-dependent population, which constitutes half the country's populace, has remained stagnant or even marginally declined during the three years of the Modi government. While the pursuit of neoliberal policies can be held responsible for this, treating the aggregate growth as a "great achievement" for political mileage is unwarranted.
Where will Global Demand come from?
May 23rd 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
As the US reduces its role as engine of global demand, there are no signs that other economies will be able to pick up the slack. The mercantilist approach exemplified by Germany is creating net global slowdown.
Narendra Modi on Poverty
Mar 20th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
When Narendra Modi talks of shifting away from giving doles to the poor, what he has in mind is that the money being currently used for welfare schemes for the poor should be withdrawn from such schemes and handed over to the corporate magnates.
The Latest GDP Estimatess
Mar 13th 2017, Prabhat Patnaik
The article discusses the possible reasons for the latest GDP estimates provided by the CSO not capturing the recessionary impact of demonetization which is an indisputable and established fact.
Budget 2017-18: The macroeconomic perspective
Mar 3rd 2017, C.P. Chandrasekhar
One reason why the government chose fiscal consolidation instead of an expansionary budget in the wake of demonetisation is its erroneous belief that demonetisation in itself would deliver fiscal benefits.
Bad Loans, Lending Behaviour and Growth
Jun 7th 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
As interested observers focus on the bad loans, accumulating in the books of India's commercial banks, the implications it has for lending behaviour and growth are less explored.
And Now, Price Deflation in India and China?
May 31st 2016, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
While it was presumed the developing world, especially the more prominent emerging markets, were less prone to price deflation, data from China and India show trends of declining producer prices.
What can Corporate Planning Learn from National Planning
Dec 29th 2015, Pronab Sen
This paper examines the historical development of national planning in India and identifies the lessons that corporate planning can draw from the long and varied experience.
The Economy: The end of euphoria
May 27th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Despite having a good fortune of lower international oil prices, the Modi government failed to deliver growth in its first year while the expectations are still very high.
Government and RBI: No real stand-off over macro policy
May 8th 2015, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The current stand-off is more of a government effort to regain influence over macroeconomic management, as the government is accountable to the people whereas the RBI is not.
Lost Between Intent and Belief
Mar 3rd 2015, Jayati Ghosh
The budget session is being undermined by the Finance Minister as hypothetical revenue figures make the allocation figures redundant under fiscal conservatism.
The "Niti Ayog"
Jan 12th 2015, Prabhat Patnaik
The replacement of the Planning Commission by the NITI Ayog marks a centralisation of economic power in the hands of the Central Government at the behest of neoliberalism.
Prof. Bhagwati has Got it Wrong
Jan 12th 2015, Rohit
Jagadish Bhagwati's recent pitch for make-in-India is flawed as it ignores domestic demand and other pitfalls of an export-oriented growth strategy.
The Gathering Clouds of Recession
Nov 24th 2014, Prabhat Patnaik
The world capitalist economy's slide into a new downturn is likely to be a harbinger of major economic and political changes within the structure of world capitalism.
Wooing the NRI Depositor
Nov 7th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The significant spike in the inflows into NRI deposits in 2013-14 has been caused by different policy shifts of the central bank.
Dilma Rousseff's Victory
Nov 5th 2014, Prabhat Patnaik
While Dilma's victory represents an important step in the right direction, intensified class struggle will be required to sustain the scheme of "transfers" to the working poor.
On High Interest Rates
Oct 13th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The RBI's decision to follow a restrictive monetary policy seems to have been influenced by the inflow of foreign finance, even if that is at the expense of growth.
New Macroeconomic Consensus Rules Budget 2014-15
Aug 4th 2014, Rohit
The author critiques the macroeconomic framework that underlies the fiscal consolidation approach of the Union Budget for 2014-15.
The Way Forward for the Economy
Jul 7th 2014, Prabhat Patnaik
The Indian economy cannot be revived by the neo liberal policies of austerity and incentives as only fiscal intervention can break the deadlock of stagflationary tendencies.
Who is Afraid of Illicit Finance?
Jun 16th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
NDA government's move to appoint an SIT to bring back illegal money from abroad brought more complex issues of finance and government's real intention to the foreground.
Stock Market Boom amidst Economic Crisis
May 19th 2014, Prabhat Patnaik
The stock market boom, within a slowdown in the economy, serves the interest of the finance capital, and the crisis cannot be addressed because the boom has to be sustained.
The Industrial Growth Conundrum
Feb 7th 2014, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The variations in manufacturing growth estimates by IIP, NAS and ASI triggered reports of an upward revision in 2011-12 GDP growth estimate, but the reasons are not obvious.
Is There a Case for Fiscal Stringency in India Now?
Dec 11th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The authors examine the evidence on central government's receipts and expenditure thus far and consider the validity of the case for fiscal stringency at this point.
The Missing Global Recovery
Nov 26th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Periodic predictions of a much-belated recovery from a five-year long recession may divert attention from the persisting crisis. But the evidence is too stark to ignore.
The Elusive Recovery
Nov 21st 2013, Prabhat Patnaik
While monetary policies have failed to resolve the current global crisis, resistance to fiscal intervention from finance capital prevents any meaningful solution for recovery.
Is there a Flight of Capital from India?
Oct 10th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Capital flight from India aggravated the overall position of rupee, but the country's balance of payments position is the fundamental weakness which needs to be addressed.
'Loans First' – Explaining Money Creation by Banks
Sep 30th 2013, Arnab Kumar Chowdhury
In fractional reserve banking, the description of banking as "accepting deposits for lending" distorts the perspective in which economics of banking is perceived and analyzed.
Is Fiscal Profligacy the Cause of the Crisis?
Sep 10th 2013, Prabhat Patnaik
Current account deficit is a major reason behind lack of demand and slowdown. Government spending on food security can boost demand for domestic goods and chance of a revival.
Redistributing Regulatory Power
May 21st 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The FSLRC's far-reaching recommendations seek a fundamental redesign of India's historically evolved financial regulatory framework in favour of a liberalised financial sector.
Fragile Foundations: Foreign capital and growth after liberalisation
May 14th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The shift from debt-financed public expenditure to debt-financed private expenditure-led growth in India has resulted in increased dependence on foreign capital and vulnerability.
Economic Crises and Women's Work: Exploring progressive strategies in a rapidly changing environment
Mar 11th 2013, Jayati Ghosh

Analysis of women's employment and decent work in the context of the global economic crisis shows that gender sensitive policy responses are more likely to be successful.

Bad Economics, But Worse Politics
Mar 6th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
There is nothing in the budget to reverse the stagflation, even as the opportunity to take effective measures aimed at showing concern for the common man has been missed too.
Niggardly on Essential Spend
Mar 1st 2013, Jayati Ghosh
Given that the Indian electorate would soon see what the real implications of the budget 2013-14 are, it is surprising that his own party let Chidambaram get away with this.
A Recipe for Continuing Stagflation
Mar 1st 2013, Jayati Ghosh
Budget 2013-14 will deliver neither higher growth nor improved conditions of life—instead it is likely to worsen the stagflationary tendencies in the economy.
A Plan for Corporate India
Jan 9th 2013, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Even though talk of planning is a travesty, the Twelfth Five Year Plan document is still a shocker, because of its unashamed advocacy of measures that favour private capital.
India's Growth Story: A comparative view
Dec 11th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Indian growth episode was not based on the sorts of stimuli and methods of financing that have characterised the growth of some other more successful Asian economies.
On Deregulation in the Petroleum Sector in India
Oct 17th 2012, Surajit Das
The policy of oil price deregulation in the face of rising international price of oil would have direct detrimental effects on growth, inflation and 'macroeconomic stability'.
Foreign Finance and India's Development
Sep 25th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The principal objective of the current government seems to be that of winning and sustaining the whimsical 'confidence' of foreign capital at all costs. This is the new and defining feature of economic policy of present day India.
How Wage-led Growth has Powered Argentina's Economic Recovery
Aug 31st 2012, Jayati Ghosh
The manner in which Argentina has been able to generate more genuinely inclusive growth, through the promotion of productive and fairly remunerated employment and a different approach to social protection, sets a bright example of alternative strategy. This could be a learning lesson for all other countries trying to come out of the current recessionary trends.
Tweaking Animal Spirits
Aug 8th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar
One element of the emerging policy consensus within India's economic policy establishment involves spurring demand for the private sector by diverting expenditure away from subsidies for the poor to finance investment. Simultaneously, a case is being made for providing more concessions to cajole the private sector into exploiting this opportunity.
Banking on Debt
Jul 10th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The latest figures on India's external account reveal that the problem of declining foreign exchange reserves is the result principally of the widening of the current account deficit, which was far too large to be covered by an increase in capital inflows. While the government may do well to address the vulnerability caused by a rising import bill, especially on account of gold imports, it has been adding to external vulnerability by encouraging further inflows of speculative debt capital.
The Blame Game around Oil
Jun 13th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar
It is not that the UPA government is running out of alternatives to tackle the woes caused by the oil and currency shocks. The absence of decisive policies and lack of inner consensus have trapped the government in a debate on who would bear the burden and how the burden should be shared. A combination of subsidies and tax reforms can address the issue. But it calls for easing the grip of neoliberal thinking over the UPA.
India's Growth Story Ends
Jun 6th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Even when confronted with slowing growth, the Indian government is adopting austerity measures that trap the country in a recession, because of the accumulated presence of foreign finance in the country. The latter not only increases economic instability, but also induces an element of "policy paralysis". Capital controls are a must to give policy manoeuvrability to the government.
Growing Differences in State Per Capita Incomes 
May 15th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The period of economic liberalisation has been marked by growing differences in per capita incomes across states, although the trend has varied across decades. In this article, the authors examine the evidence on per capita Net Domestic Product at the state level since 1980, and consider some possible explanations for the observed trends.
The Price of Growth 
Jan 27th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The early signs of a reduction in the rate of inflation have been used as evidence to make a case for lower interest rates. However, there is no reason to believe that within the current policy regime, rate cuts would not aggravate inflationary trends once again.
Democracy and the Financial Markets
Dec 1st 2011, Jayati Ghosh
In the last few decades, it has become increasingly common for various developing and "emerging" markets to give greater importance to appeasing the interests of financial markets over the requirements of political democracy. Now, this is afflicting developed countries as well, where governments are sacrificing democracy in favour of the markets.
''Planning'' for Whom?
Oct 12th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar
There are some fundamental changes in the Planning Commission's current perspective relative to the earlier periods. In the post-Independence years, pursuit of profit was not seen as being in the social interest and this was reflected in the nature of development planning. But now, profit is the sole motive and the role of the state is to merely facilitate this by incentivising corporate activity.

The Challenge of Ensuring Full Employment in the Twenty-first Century

Oct 12th 2011, Jayati Ghosh
The recent economic growth process in India and other parts of the developing world exhibits the inability of even high rates of output growth to generate sufficient opportunities for 'decent work' to meet the needs of the growing labour force. Therefore, there is a clear case for a shift towards wage-led and domestic demand-led growth, particularly in the economies that are large enough to sustain this shift.
What World Leaders Need to Do Urgently (but are not)
Oct 4th 2011, Jayati Ghosh
Global leaders' efforts to control the prevailing anarchy and enable recovery in their economies end up having the opposite effect, because the direction of their macroeconomic policies is all wrong and mobile finance capital is still largely unregulated. Here are five basic steps that world leaders need to take.
India's Schizophrenic Banks
Jun 29th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The release of the third of the Financial Stability Reports being prepared by the RBI provides new information on the state and behaviour of the Indian banking system. While banks appear well capitalised and their balance sheets robust, at the margin they seem to be embracing too much risk.
Trading Growth for Inflation
May 27th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar
If inflation is influenced by global developments, adjusting domestic interest rates may do little to redress the problem. The RBI's latest interest rate manoeuvre may thus end up being successful in contracting demand and growth, but it is likely to fail to rein in inflation.
Employment under the New Growth Trajectory
Dec 22nd 2010, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
A comparison of the results of the 55th, 61st and 64th Rounds of the NSS permits an assessment of the trends in employment in India during the years when India transited to an era of high growth. It suggests that some of the optimism generated by the results for 2004-05 may not be warranted.
Surviving Uncertain Times
Dec 1st 2010, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
It is now evident that the world economy is in for another spate of major problems, with recession and stagnation likely to affect the largest economies and altering prospects for growth elsewhere. This article examines recent patterns of the Indian economy's external engagement, in order to gauge how well equipped it is to face this uncertain future.
Fiscal Discipline and All That
Jul 27th 2010, Jayati Ghosh
There was a sudden resurgence in Keynesian ideas everywhere when the global financial crisis broke in September 2008. But, equally suddenly, financial markets have once again turned back on state intervention and policy makers are giving in to demands for massive cuts in public expenditure that would require enormous sacrifices from their populations.
Foreign Aid or Aiding the Foreign?
May 1st 2010, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The passing of a draft version of the Foreign Educational Institutions Bill by the Union Cabinet has raised certain questions with protagonists and opponents expressing a range of views on the subject. While there is a fear that the process underway is one of creating a window for foreign players and then changing the rules in their favour, question is also raised whether the implementation of the Bill amounts to skewing further the inequality in access to higher education.
The Travails of the Rupee
Apr 15th 2010, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The significant appreciation of the rupee in recent months, driven by a surge in foreign portfolio capital inflows, has revived old and generated new problems for macroeconomic management. This signals once again that the need is not for further capital account liberalisation but for the imposition of additional controls on the cross-border flows of capital.
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