The Industrial Recession: New or Ongoing?
Nov 18th 2008, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Current economic problems in the Indian economy are being presented by the government as created entirely by the direct and indirect effects of the global financial crisis. Even the industrial slowdown is being blamed on the adverse impact of the global slowdown upon manufacturing exports. However, the official data suggest that the industrial slowdown began well before the effects of the external crisis began to be felt in India.
Prospect of an Industrial Recession
Nov 4th 2008, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Some observers are of the view that the sharp fall in the month-on-month annual rate of industrial growth in August 2008 exaggerates the actual and likely slow down in industrial growth. This article discusses why the broad trend suggested by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) may not be too far off the mark.
Employment and the Pattern of Growth
Oct 8th 2008, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
A much discussed aspect of post-reform industrial performance is the stagnation of employment in the organised manufacturing sector, despite high rates of output growth. The authors examine this performance and relate this to the composition of growth in the registered manufacturing sector, and suggest that demand-side factors may have an important explanatory role.
India's Hitech Lag
Sep 8th 2008, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The last two decades have seen the gradual erosion of US and EU dominance in hitech manufacturing. The principal challenger has been and remains China. India, unfortunately, has lagged far behind, though capabilities generated during the import substitution years have given it some recent gains in global markets, argue the authors.
WTO: One More Failure
Aug 7th 2008, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The collapse of the talks of the Doha Round on 29th July, 2008 is no big deal since along the long route of the Doha round, periodic failure of negotiations is inevitable. This is not a disaster for advocates of trade liberalisation either because, in most countries, actual levels of protection are much lower than the bound levels WTO talks about. The point to note is that the so-called progress in trade liberalisation notwithstanding, the fundamental asymmetry of the world trading system remains.
Two Instruments by Name Kalawati and Sasikala
Jul 28th 2008, R. Ramakumar
Rahul Gandhi's speech in the Loksabha during the trust motion did not just try to cover-up for the Enron fiasco which is responsible for the 'energy insecurity' in Maharashtra, it was also a poor effort to sidestep the central role of the Congress party (as well as the Sena-BJP combine) in triggering the series of farmer'’ suicides in rural Maharashtra.
Diamonds and Blood
Jul 23rd 2008, Jayati Ghosh
The new spurt in demand for diamonds among the Indian elite only feeds into the fact that the world diamond trade is substantially based on the most gruesome violence and terror in Africa. This is more reinforced in recent times which is characterised by an even more cynical exploitation and reinforcement by multinational processing and trading companies, of vicious local conflicts in the sub-Saharan region.
The Nuclear Deal and the Priorities of the UPA Government
Jul 21st 2008, Jayati Ghosh
Instead of initiating a wide public debate and a detailed debate in central and state legislatures backed up by full information on the Indo-Us nuclear deal, a veil of secrecy has surrounded the negotiations, and the little information that has been available has come mostly from media sources that have behaved like pliant publicists for the government rather than independent observers.
The Oil Conundrum
Jul 17th 2008, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The large and quick increases in oil prices have resulted in a sharp divergence between the domestic prices of oil products set by the government and the international prices at which imports are being made. If the divergence is bridged by raising the domestic price of oil products, there will be spiralling inflation but otherwise oil companies will soon become unviable. In countries like India that are dependent on imports of oil the real issue is the way in which the gap between domestic and international prices can be financed.
Recent Growth in West Bengal
May 12th 2008, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
The state of West Bengal has been the focus of national discussion because of the various implications of its proposed industrialisation policy. In this article the authors consider the background to this policy by analysing the most recent available evidence on growth trends in West Bengal.
The Industrial Upturn
Nov 5th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The disconnect between India’s booming financial sector and its real economy has only worsened in the recent times. It is the real economy we need to look at to assess the real performance of the economy. In the context of the current industrial boom, it becomes important to acknowledge the possibility of a downturn and find stable sources of growth.
The Novartis Case
Oct 8th 2007, Jayati Ghosh
The Madras High Court's recent rejection of Novartis' attempt to patent the leukaemia treatment drug, sold as Glivec in India, comes as an unexpected and much welcome break and a precedent in the fight for cheaper lifesaving drugs. The crucial question of whether this drug is actually a new invention or simply a minor modification of an older, off-patent drug, was one which is often used by multinational pharmaceutical companies as a method of prolonging monopoly control over products that would otherwise move off the patent list.
Land Acquisition, Corporate Capital and Social Justice
Oct 3rd 2007, Ratan Khasnabis

This paper discusses how a massive drive for converting agricultural land to non-agricultural use is taking place in the Third World in the recent phase of globalisation, driven chiefly by corporate capital and often by utilizing the instrument of state power. The first Section of this paper discusses the background of land transfer and the corporatisation of land with special reference to India, followed by a discussion on the nature of justice that the dispossessed receive when land is transferred to the corporate. The role of the state as the mitigator has also been discussed in this paper.

What's 'Made in India'?
Jun 14th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Analysis of the changes in the overall composition of India's exports during the years of export recovery does not point to a major contribution by manufacturing to those changes. Therefore, no significant improvement in India's competitive position in manufactured exports is visible. In fact, the global strategies adopted by leading Indian manufacturing firms suggest that the possibility that India would enter higher-end segments with a higher proportion of final value added being generated within its own geographical boundaries, is weakening.
Jobless Growth in Chinese Manufacturing
May 15th 2007, C.P Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

While China is increasingly seen as “the workshop of the world” and there are fears of relocative shifts in manufacturing output and employment away from other countries to China, the recent pattern of manufacturing growth appears to have been characterised by declining employment. In this paper, the authors investigate the trends in manufacturing employment in China and consider the reasons for this paradox.

Who is Doing the Saving and Investing?
May 11th 2007, C.P Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The recent phase of high economic growth in India has been associated with high savings and investment rates. This paper investigates the recent patterns in savings and investment and considers what this reveals about the nature of the growth process. It helps us to understand why the theme of “two Indias” is unfortunately so persistent and so plausible, at least in economic terms.

Recent Employment Trends in India and China: An Unfortunate Convergence?
Apr 5th 2007, C.P Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

This paper argues that both China and India, despite the similarity of the current international hype about their future economic prospects and also despite their obvious differences, face rather similar economic problems at present with respect to the labour market. In both countries, the strategy of development is delivering relatively high growth without commensurate increases in employment, especially in the organised sector; and the bulk of new employment is in lower productivity activities under uncertain and often oppressive conditions. It is argued that this paradox may be a common result of the similar strategy of economic expansion currently being followed in both countries.

Tata's Gamble: Triumph or Nemesis?
Feb 14th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar

As the euphoria over the acquisition of Anglo-Dutch steel major Corus by the Tata group being a ''national'' victory wanes, the question that would remain is whether the price offered to clinch the deal is too high for comfort. This concern is real despite the fact that Tata hopes to rely on its advantages as an integrated steel producer.

Growth and Employment in Organised Industry
Jan 30th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The rapid growth of output of organised industry is a frequently cited indicator of India’s current phase of dynamic growth. Yet such expansion has not been accompanied by employment growth along the lines expected. This paper considers the nature of recent growth in organised industry and the reasons why it has not generated more employment.

The Threat from the Internet
Jan 20th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar

Increased access to cheap bandwidth would have wide ramifications, some of which would be positive external benefits for many sectors. But one industry that may be disadvantaged due to the consequent increased competition and migration of advertisement revenues to the web media is the print media in India, which has so far remained unaffected by the global trend of decline in print media circulation, especially that of daily newspapers.

Knowledge and the Asian Challenge
Sep 5th 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The scorching pace of expansion in the exports of hi-tech manufactured products from China and software and IT-enabled services from India, has supported the view that 'knowledge capital' plays a crucial role in the growing global presence of these countries. This paper discusses the empirical basis for that assessment.

The Need to Protect Petty Production
Jul 17th 2006, Prabhat Patnaik

This paper argues that in a situation where unemployment is generated through the disappearance of small-scale production, the ''efficiency'' argument in favour of their closure does not stand, even if small-scale units are more inefficient at the micro-level. The destruction of petty production through exposure to liberal trade, in the name of efficiency, is therefore an undesirable course of action.

Bumps in the Flat World
Jun 21st 2006, Jayati Ghosh

There are interesting economic and sociological lessons from the recent story of the Mittal Group's bid for the French steel company Arcelor. It shows that pure arms length transactions driven by open competition and efficiency and unsullied by social and cultural differences do not exist, and that global capitalism continues to be shaped by the latter differences.

Exploding Imports
Mar 22nd 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The recent period has witnessed an explosion of imports in India. This paper examines the pattern of imports over the past decade and a half and discusses the implications of import penetration for domestic output and employment.

How Large is China’s Private Sector?
Sep 30th 2005, C.P. Chandrasekhar

While the significance of the large and rising share of private business in China’s non-farm business sector cannot be undermined, the evidence does underestimate the role of the state in the economy, which continues to dominate strategic economic areas and aggregate fixed capital formation.

Awaiting the Oil After-shock

Aug 25th 2005, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

With headlines tracking the ever-rising price of oil, the lack of any major effect of the shock on global growth has become the subject of discussion and speculation. In this paper, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh examine the factors driving the oil price increase and the likelihood that this increase would persist and affect the level and distribution of global income.

The Chinese Bogeyman in US Clothing

Apr 25th 2005, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Barely four months after the end of quotas under the MFA, winds of protectionism are sweeping through the US and Europe. Pointing at China once more, governments are threatening to clamp down on imports on grounds of market disruption. In this paper, the authors examine recent trends in the US textile trade to unravel the source of conflict.

How is Indian Industry Faring?

Sep 21st 2004. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

A sharp rise in the services share in India's GDP, coming at a time when services exports are booming, has been used to argue the country is on a new growth trajectory in keeping with global trends. But behind these figures, argue C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh, is a disconcerting trend in manufacturing growth that official figures are not revealing in full.

The Stock Market and the Real Economy

May 17th 2004, Jayati Ghosh

Contrary to what the mainstream media suggests, the latest fall in the Indian stock market in reaction to the uncertainty created by the poll outcome, is not really a matter of serious concern for most Indians. Real investment in the economy depends on many factors other than simply changes in market capitalisation.

Stock Markets: A Nifty Source for Investment?

Mar 24th 2004.

The new peaks touched by stock indices this year and the success of the government’s end-of-year disinvestment rush are convincing many that the stock market is likely to emerge a major source of finance for investment in the future. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh examine the record in this country and elsewhere to assess the strength of that argument.

The End of Development Finance

Mar 17th 2004.

Recent months have seen a series of events that spells the end of the era of development banking in India. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh discuss why this is an inevitable fall-out of the process of financial liberalisation.

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