|
The
Industrial Recession: New or Ongoing?
|
| Nov
18th 2008, C.P.
Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
Current
economic problems in the Indian economy are being presented
by the government as created entirely by the direct
and indirect effects of the global financial crisis.
Even the industrial slowdown is being blamed on the
adverse impact of the global slowdown upon manufacturing
exports. However, the official data suggest that the
industrial slowdown began well before the effects of
the external crisis began to be felt in India. |
|
Prospect
of an Industrial Recession
|
| Nov
4th 2008, C.P.
Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
Some
observers are of the view that the sharp fall in the
month-on-month annual rate of industrial growth in August
2008 exaggerates the actual and likely slow down in
industrial growth. This article discusses why the broad
trend suggested by the Index of Industrial Production
(IIP) may not be too far off the mark. |
|
| Employment
and the Pattern of Growth |
| Oct
8th 2008, C.P.
Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
A
much discussed aspect of post-reform industrial performance
is the stagnation of employment in the organised manufacturing
sector, despite high rates of output growth. The authors
examine this performance and relate this to the composition
of growth in the registered manufacturing sector, and
suggest that demand-side factors may have an important
explanatory role. |
|
| India's
Hitech Lag
|
| Sep
8th 2008, C.P.
Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
last two decades have seen the gradual erosion of US
and EU dominance in hitech manufacturing. The principal
challenger has been and remains China. India, unfortunately,
has lagged far behind, though capabilities generated
during the import substitution years have given it some
recent gains in global markets, argue the authors. |
|
| WTO:
One More Failure
|
| Aug
7th 2008, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
The
collapse of the talks of the Doha Round on 29th July,
2008 is no big deal since along the long route of the
Doha round, periodic failure of negotiations is inevitable.
This is not a disaster for advocates of trade liberalisation
either because, in most countries, actual levels of
protection are much lower than the bound levels WTO
talks about. The point to note is that the so-called
progress in trade liberalisation notwithstanding, the
fundamental asymmetry of the world trading system remains. |
|
| Two
Instruments by Name Kalawati and Sasikala
|
| Jul
28th 2008, R. Ramakumar |
|
Rahul
Gandhi's speech in the Loksabha during the trust motion
did not just try to cover-up for the Enron fiasco which
is responsible for the 'energy insecurity' in Maharashtra,
it was also a poor effort to sidestep the central role
of the Congress party (as well as the Sena-BJP combine)
in triggering the series of farmer'’ suicides in rural
Maharashtra. |
|
| Diamonds
and Blood
|
| Jul
23rd 2008, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
The
new spurt in demand for diamonds among the Indian elite
only feeds into the fact that the world diamond trade
is substantially based on the most gruesome violence
and terror in Africa. This is more reinforced in recent
times which is characterised by an even more cynical
exploitation and reinforcement by multinational processing
and trading companies, of vicious local conflicts in
the sub-Saharan region. |
|
| The
Nuclear Deal and the Priorities of the UPA Government
|
| Jul
21st 2008, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
Instead
of initiating a wide public debate and a detailed debate
in central and state legislatures backed up by full
information on the Indo-Us nuclear deal, a veil of secrecy
has surrounded the negotiations, and the little information
that has been available has come mostly from media sources
that have behaved like pliant publicists for the government
rather than independent observers. |
|
| The
Oil Conundrum
|
| Jul
17th 2008, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
| The
large and quick increases in oil prices have resulted
in a sharp divergence between the domestic prices of
oil products set by the government and the international
prices at which imports are being made. If the divergence
is bridged by raising the domestic price of oil products,
there will be spiralling inflation but otherwise oil
companies will soon become unviable. In countries like
India that are dependent on imports of oil the real
issue is the way in which the gap between domestic and
international prices can be financed. |
|
| Recent
Growth in West Bengal |
| May
12th
2008, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
| The
state of West Bengal has been the focus of national
discussion because of the various implications of its
proposed industrialisation policy. In this article the
authors consider the background to this policy by analysing
the most recent available evidence on growth trends
in West Bengal. |
|
| The
Industrial Upturn |
| Nov
5th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
| The
disconnect between India’s booming financial sector
and its real economy has only worsened in the recent
times. It is the real economy we need to look at to
assess the real performance of the economy. In the context
of the current industrial boom, it becomes important
to acknowledge the possibility of a downturn and find
stable sources of growth. |
|
| The
Novartis Case |
| Oct
8th 2007, Jayati Ghosh |
| The
Madras High Court's recent rejection of Novartis' attempt
to patent the leukaemia treatment drug, sold as Glivec
in India, comes as an unexpected and much welcome break
and a precedent in the fight for cheaper lifesaving
drugs. The crucial question of whether this drug is
actually a new invention or simply a minor modification
of an older, off-patent drug, was one which is often
used by multinational pharmaceutical companies as a
method of prolonging monopoly control over products
that would otherwise move off the patent list. |
|
| Land
Acquisition, Corporate Capital and Social Justice |
| Oct
3rd 2007, Ratan Khasnabis |
|
|
This
paper discusses how a massive drive for converting agricultural
land to non-agricultural use is taking place in the
Third World in the recent phase of globalisation, driven
chiefly by corporate capital and often by utilizing
the instrument of state power. The first Section of
this paper discusses the background of land transfer
and the corporatisation of land with special reference
to India, followed by a discussion on the nature of
justice that the dispossessed receive when land is transferred
to the corporate. The role of the state as the mitigator
has also been discussed in this paper. |
|
| What's
'Made in India'? |
| Jun
14th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
| Analysis
of the changes in the overall composition of India's
exports during the years of export recovery does not
point to a major contribution by manufacturing to those
changes. Therefore, no significant improvement in India's
competitive position in manufactured exports is visible.
In fact, the global strategies adopted by leading Indian
manufacturing firms suggest that the possibility that
India would enter higher-end segments with a higher
proportion of final value added being generated within
its own geographical boundaries, is weakening. |
|
| Jobless
Growth in Chinese Manufacturing |
| May
15th 2007, C.P Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
While
China is increasingly seen as “the workshop of the world”
and there are fears of relocative shifts in manufacturing
output and employment away from other countries to China,
the recent pattern of manufacturing growth appears to
have been characterised by declining employment. In
this paper, the authors investigate the trends in manufacturing
employment in China and consider the reasons for this
paradox. |
|
| Who
is Doing the Saving and Investing? |
| May
11th 2007, C.P Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
The
recent phase of high economic growth in India has been
associated with high savings and investment rates. This
paper investigates the recent patterns in savings and
investment and considers what this reveals about the
nature of the growth process. It helps us to understand
why the theme of “two Indias” is unfortunately so persistent
and so plausible, at least in economic terms. |
|
| Recent
Employment Trends in India and China: An Unfortunate Convergence? |
| Apr
5th 2007, C.P Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
This
paper argues that both China and India, despite the
similarity of the current international hype about their
future economic prospects and also despite their obvious
differences, face rather similar economic problems at
present with respect to the labour market. In both countries,
the strategy of development is delivering relatively
high growth without commensurate increases in employment,
especially in the organised sector; and the bulk of
new employment is in lower productivity activities under
uncertain and often oppressive conditions. It is argued
that this paradox may be a common result of the similar
strategy of economic expansion currently being followed
in both countries. |
|
| Tata's
Gamble: Triumph or Nemesis? |
| Feb
14th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
|
As
the euphoria over the acquisition of Anglo-Dutch steel
major Corus by the Tata group being a ''national'' victory
wanes, the question that would remain is whether the
price offered to clinch the deal is too high for comfort.
This concern is real despite the fact that Tata hopes
to rely on its advantages as an integrated steel producer. |
|
| Growth
and Employment in Organised Industry |
| Jan
30th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
The
rapid growth of output of organised industry is a frequently
cited indicator of India’s current phase of dynamic
growth. Yet such expansion has not been accompanied
by employment growth along the lines expected. This
paper considers the nature of recent growth in organised
industry and the reasons why it has not generated more
employment. |
|
|
The Threat from the Internet |
| Jan
20th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Increased
access to cheap bandwidth would have wide ramifications,
some of which would be positive external benefits for
many sectors. But one industry that may be disadvantaged
due to the consequent increased competition and migration
of advertisement revenues to the web media is the print
media in India, which has so far remained unaffected
by the global trend of decline in print media circulation,
especially that of daily newspapers. |
|
| Knowledge
and the Asian Challenge |
| Sep
5th 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
scorching pace of expansion in the exports of hi-tech
manufactured products from China and software and IT-enabled
services from India, has supported the view that 'knowledge
capital' plays a crucial role in the growing global
presence of these countries. This paper discusses the
empirical basis for that assessment.
|
|
|
The Need to Protect Petty Production |
| Jul
17th 2006, Prabhat Patnaik |
|
This paper
argues that in a situation where unemployment is generated
through the disappearance of small-scale production,
the ''efficiency'' argument in favour of their closure
does not stand, even if small-scale units are more inefficient
at the micro-level. The destruction of petty production
through exposure to liberal trade, in the name of efficiency,
is therefore an undesirable course of action. |
|
| Bumps
in the Flat World |
| Jun
21st 2006, Jayati Ghosh |
|
There
are interesting economic and sociological lessons from
the recent story of the Mittal Group's bid for the French
steel company Arcelor. It shows that pure arms length
transactions driven by open competition and efficiency
and unsullied by social and cultural differences do
not exist, and that global capitalism continues to be
shaped by the latter differences.
|
|
| Exploding
Imports |
| Mar
22nd 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
recent period has witnessed an explosion of imports
in India. This paper examines the pattern of imports
over the past decade and a half and discusses the implications
of import penetration for domestic output and employment. |
|
| How
Large is China’s Private Sector? |
| Sep
30th 2005, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
While
the significance of the large and rising share of private
business in China’s non-farm business sector cannot
be undermined, the evidence does underestimate the role
of the state in the economy, which continues to dominate
strategic economic areas and aggregate fixed capital
formation. |
|
Awaiting
the Oil After-shock |
| Aug
25th 2005, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
| With
headlines tracking the ever-rising price of oil, the
lack of any major effect of the shock on global growth
has become the subject of discussion and speculation.
In this paper, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh examine
the factors driving the oil price increase and the likelihood
that this increase would persist and affect the level
and distribution of global income.
|
|
The
Chinese Bogeyman in US Clothing
|
| Apr
25th 2005, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
| Barely
four months after the end of quotas under the MFA, winds
of protectionism are sweeping through the US and Europe.
Pointing at China once more, governments are threatening
to clamp down on imports on grounds of market disruption.
In this paper, the authors examine recent trends in
the US textile trade to unravel the source of conflict.
|
|
|
How
is Indian Industry Faring? |
| Sep
21st 2004. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A
sharp rise in the services share in India's GDP, coming
at a time when services exports are booming, has been
used to argue the country is on a new growth trajectory
in keeping with global trends. But behind these figures,
argue C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh, is a disconcerting
trend in manufacturing growth that official figures
are not revealing in full. |
|
|
The
Stock Market and the Real Economy |
|
May
17th 2004, Jayati Ghosh |
|
Contrary
to what the mainstream media suggests, the latest fall
in the Indian stock market in reaction to the uncertainty
created by the poll outcome, is not really a matter
of serious concern for most Indians. Real investment
in the economy depends on many factors other than simply
changes in market capitalisation. |
|
|
Stock
Markets: A Nifty Source for Investment? |
|
Mar 24th
2004. |
|
The new
peaks touched by stock indices this year and the success
of the government’s end-of-year disinvestment rush are
convincing many that the stock market is likely to emerge
a major source of finance for investment in the future.
C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh examine the record
in this country and elsewhere to assess the strength
of that argument. |
|
|
The
End of Development Finance |
|
Mar 17th
2004. |
|
Recent
months have seen a series of events that spells the
end of the era of development banking in India. C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh discuss why this is an
inevitable fall-out of the process of financial liberalisation. |
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