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The
Financial Crisis and the Developing World |
| Oct
25th 2008, Jayati
Ghosh |
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| Violent
fluctuations in stock prices along with other factors
witnessed in emerging markets in the past two weeks
have made it clear that the developing world is not
insulated from the financial turmoil raging in industrial
countries. The crisis will have different impacts in
different places, depending on, in particular, the extent
of integration of the capital market of the concerned
developing country. An important positive fall-out of
this financial crisis is that it has created an opportunity
for replacing the economic model of neoliberalism with
more progressive and democratic alternatives. |
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The
Loss of Development Finance |
| Oct
23rd 2008, Jayati
Ghosh |
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| The
financial tsunami that is now threatening to engulf
many developing countries as well, makes all the more
clear the dangers posed by unregulated financial markets.
As is known, in addition to creating the conditions
for greater fragility, financial liberalisation generates
a bias towards deflationary macroeconomic policies and
forces the state to adopt a deflationary stance to appease
financial interests. In fact, financial liberalisation
in developing countries has even worse consequences,
because it can retard or even reverse the development. |
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Capitalism
in Transition? |
| Oct
22nd 2008, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
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| The
takeover of major private banks by developed country
governments is a desperate attempt to stall the financial
meltdown in these economies, which resulted from the
decision to allow private financial players unfettered
freedom to pursue profits at the expense of all else.
This threat has forced governments to drop their neo-conservative
bias against State ownership. |
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In
Search of Causes |
| Oct
22nd 2008, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
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| As
the financial crisis in the advanced economies intensifies,
analyses of the causes of the crisis and its sources
have multiplied. But, there is a degree of implicit
agreement among different analyses that the crisis can
be traced to forces unleashed by the transformation
of US and global finance starting in the 1970s. |
|
India
and the Global Financial Crisis |
| Oct
15th 2008, C.P.
Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
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| Although
India is not likely to face a financial meltdown of
the kind that was nearly experienced in the United States
due to larger role of the nationalised banks and other
controls on domestic finance here, there has been some
adverse impact on the economy in the form of double-digit
inflation, rupee depreciation, widening capital account
deficit and decreasing foreign exchange reserves. It
is therefore necessary that the government gives a second
thought to its liberalisation policy. |
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Socialising
Losses |
| Oct
10th 2008, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
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| There
are reasons to believe that the current package in the
US bail out Bill will fail to address the financial
crisis adequately and restore stability. Meanwhile,
globally, markets are in a state of collapse, partly
driven by the expectations generated by the scaremongering
used to push through the package. |
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No
End to the Global Meltdown |
| Sep
12 th 2008, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
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| More
than a year since the sub prime crisis began, the financial
meltdown still persists. With the Lehman Brothers filing
for bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch selling out recently,
most major investment banks seem to be facing a new
set of problems which are related to the now-not-so-new
sub-prime crisis and the unwillingness of both the institutions
concerned and the regulators to properly assess the
effects of that crisis on their financial viability. |
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| Innovative
Scamsters |
| Aug
20th 2008, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
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|
The
recent emergence of a set of financial instruments,
by the name of 'auction rate securities' or ARS, signifies
another symbol of the malfunctioning global financial
markets. The ARS system apparently follows a transparent
and market efficient principle, but in reality results
in a lowering of the notional value of securities held
by investors in the absence of an active market. |
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| Gender
Inequality in Banking Services in India A Note |
| Aug
2nd 2008, Pallavi Chavan |
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This brief note is a preliminary attempt to understand
the extent and nature of gender inequality in the provision
of banking services in India. It addresses the largely
unanswered question of whether the increasing spread
of micro finance has indeed resulted in financial inclusion
of women at large and whether it has been able to counteract
the existing gender inequality in the provision of banking
services. |
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| IT
Firms and Financial Markets: A Changed Relationship
|
| Jul
14 th 2008, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
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An
interesting feature of recent stock market trends is
the differential performance India’s IT sector relative
to the market as a whole. While IT firms performed well
in terms of the sales, exports and profits they recorded
in the period since 2004, the shares of listed IT companies
did not reflect the buoyancy that the overall stockmarket
showed. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh discuss
this curious feature, which contrasts with the experience
at the turn of the millennium. |
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| A
Note on Fiscal Devolution and the Centrally Sponsored
Schemes
|
| May
26th
2008, Jayati Ghosh |
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A
constraint on the ability of the state governments to
raise revenues in turn limits their capacity to fulfil
even their constitutional responsibilities towards their
citizens. The pattern of fiscal devolution from Centre
to States is of the utmost significance from this perspective.
This system however, under the respective Finance Commissions,
has actually increased the centralisation of government
finances over time. |
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| An
Insider View from George Soros
|
| Apr
29th 2008,
C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
Among
some of the voices which are calling for more attention
to the nature of the current US financial crisis and
for a more disinterested view of the need for state
intervention, an influencial one is that of George Soros.
His book "The New Paradigm for Financial Markets:
The Credit Crash of 2008 and What it Means",
being released in May, challenges the prevailing sanguine
view on the intensity and implications of the crisis.
This review is based on a reading of the digital edition
available from various ebook sellers and his recent
speeches. |
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| Leaning
on the State
|
| Mar
19th 2008,
C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
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| Interestingly,
the very financial liberalisation that created the problems
epitomised by the sub-prime crisis was predicated on
a critique of the efficacy and correctness of intervention
by the state. But recent developments show that bail-outs
by the government of institutions that are weakened
by wrong financial decisions are now taken for granted,
thus legitimising interventionism. Can the "problem"
that liberalisation was directed to "solve"
now itself become the solution to the problems that
liberalisation creates?
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The
Global Liquidity Paradox
| Mar
14th 2008, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
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One
global fall-out of the sub-prime crisis in the US is
a liquidity squeeze that central banks in the developed
countries are attempting to counter by pumping liquidity
into the system and reducing interest rates. This is
indeed paradoxical, since the crisis in the first place
was a result of an excessive build up of liquidity in
the international system, leading to a synchronized
boom in stock and real estate markets across the globe.
Explaining the paradox requires understanding how the
liquidity spiral occurs and how such liquidity is put
to use by a liberalized and globalized financial system. |
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India
and the World Economy
| Jan
12 th 2008, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
| Boosted
by media reports and assessments by public and private
financial institutions of India's high growth potential,
capital inflows have seen a major surge in India resulting
for one in huge foreign exchange reserves. But expectations
that India is out to share in the spoils of global dominance
may be misplaced since these fail to take account of
the kind of liabilities that India is accumulating in
order to finance its still incipient global expansion.
Also, the more the investor and lender confidence results
in capital flows in excess of India's current account
financing needs, the greater is the possibility that
such confidence can erode. |
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More
Space for Speculation
| Jan
8th
2008, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
| SEBI has
recently decided to permit institutional investors to
indulge in short selling, or the sale of shares that
they do not own, and to restore the Securities Lending
and Borrowing Scheme which will allow market players
to borrow stocks to either sell or honour delivery commitments.
At this moment when the boom driven by past speculation
threatens to unravel, this move will simply add to misuses
in the stock market and speculative activities. The
argument that they increase liquidity in the market
and correct stock price over-valuation is also misplaced
in the current context. |
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Too
Little, Too Late
| Dec
12th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
| Though
the Finance Minister seems to have recently realized
the folly of free and large capital inflows, the realization
comes too late and offers too little in terms of solutions.
He still seems to have an inadequate understanding of
the problems that the capital surge has created and
is still creating. Too late, because the Finance Minister
looks unwilling to face the consequences of actions
aimed at slowing, let alone arresting, capital inflows. |
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The
Changing World of Corporate Finance
| Nov
30th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
| Huge
foreign capital inflows have recently pushed up equity
valuations to generally unsustainable levels, and created
many adverse impacts in the economy and on the corporate
sector, and has made it difficult for the RBI to manage
money supply and use the monetary lever to pursue other
objectives. However, these trends notwithstanding, internal
resources and bank finance dominate corporate financing
and not equity, which receives all the attention because
of the surge in foreign institutional investment and
the media’s obsession with stock market buoyancy. |
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Too
Much of a Good Thing
| Nov
17th 2007, Jayati Ghosh |
| The
massive surge in net capital inflows has put substantial
pressure on the rupee. Faced with an unwanted surge
of capital that is not being used for productive investment
but is associated with a rising exchange rate, the need
to put some limits and constraints on the capital inflows,
in the form of direct marketing activity in lieu of
a capital gains tax, cannot be denied |
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The
Market Stabilization Scheme and the Indian Fisc
| Nov
12th 2007, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
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|
The
Market Stabilization Scheme was launched in 2004 to
sterilize the effects of foreign exchange reserve accumulation
resulting from large capital inflows. While allowing
the RBI to manage money supply in the face of an unprecedented
surge in capital inflows, the scheme is increasing the
interest burden the central government has to bear and
reducing its fiscal maneuverability. It is time, therefore,
to look to ways to regulate capital inflows rather than
adapt to them argue C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh. |
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Unravelling
India's Growth Transition
| Nov
2nd
2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
| India's
GDP growth has experienced a sudden boost in the middle
of 2003. One specific component of the services sector,
and interestingly, manufacturing growth seems to have
contributed significantly to this transition in growth
pattern. But the fact that the domestic market, which
played a major role in this scenario, was driven in
the final analysis by a financial boom that eased credit
availability, reduced interest rates and encouraged
debt-financed consumption and investment, makes the
growth process fragile and a cause for concern for future
policymaking. |
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Finance
and the Real Economy
| Oct
11th 2007, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
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|
At
a time when reports of losses resulting from the subprime
crisis are on the rise, a paradoxical surge in global
stockmarkets is inducing an element of complacency.
The worst is over, argue observers. C.P. Chandrasekhar
and Jayati Ghosh take a longer view, and examine evidence
on growth and volatility in the age of finance that
suggests that the worst is perhaps not behind us. |
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Can
the US Fed help Asian Markets?
| Sep
5th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
| Institutions
reeling under the knock-on effects of the developments
in the US, especially its subprime housing market with
rising defaults and foreclosures, are selling out in
Asian markets to find the money to rebalance their capital
structures or meet their commitments. The crisis in
the US is therefore having wide impact on other economies
in spite of good fundamentals. However, addressing it
will be difficult as it needs major intervention not
only from the US Fed but the President and the Congress.
|
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A
Reticent RBI Succumbs
| Aug
11th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
| In
spite of the growing importance of the financial sector,
the RBI is often short on new initiatives and errs on
the side of stability rather than change. Given the
excessive inflow of credit into the system, the RBI
has merely signaled that credit must be restrained basically
in order to curb inflation, but has done very little
in pursuit of that objective. However, it is important
to note that the RBI’s ability to curb money supply
is also getting severely restricted in the current financial
regime characterized by high foreign capital inflows. |
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| Murdoch’s
Last Laffer
|
| Jul
30th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
| The
offer by Rupert Murdoch to buy up Dow Jones, which owns
the Wall Street Journal shows that the Journal is now
haunted by its own promotion of changes in American
capitalism that have paved the way for the domination
of merger and acquisitions wave. This has led to conversion
of media empires into typical corporations that are
as much the targets of take-over and seekers of financial
gain as any other. This corporate-led, profit-driven
dynamics underlying this trend, promoted vigorously
by the media itself, has had serious adverse implications
for questions of integrity especially of the financial
media, which the Wall Street Journal projects itself
as promoters of. |
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| Banking
on Home Builders
|
| Jul
14th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
| Given
active encouragement to chase profits in hitherto restricted
markets with new instruments, Indian banks are choosing
to change their portfolios rather sharply. The trend
is towards a diversification of bank credit away from
the commodity producing sectors and even trade which
is almost completely counterbalanced by loans to individuals
and professionals by means of personal loans and professional
services, with a large concentration in housing loans.
This has increased the extent of risk in the financial
system. |
|
Global
finance today: Deja vu?
| Jun
15th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
| This
article describes and analyses a set of new characteristics
in the nature of financial integration of developing
countries with their developed counterparts over the
last four years. It argues that this represents a transformation
where the risks associated with the current surge in
capital flows are far greater than World Bank predictions
and that a turn in the investment cycle, with far-reaching
implications, is real and imminent |
|
Private
Equity: A New Role for Finance?
| May
22nd 2007,
C.
P. Chandrasekhar |
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Given
that a substantial proportion of companies in Asian
developing countries are either unlisted or have a small
proportion of free-floating shares, the surge in investments
by private equity firms suggests that foreign acquisitions
could increase in the region sharply. With foreign investors
controlling a rising share of total assets, the ability
of domestic forces and the domestic State to influence
the pattern and pace of growth of domestic economic
activity would be substantially eroded. |
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Lessons
from the US Sub-prime Lending Crisis
| Apr
18 th 2007, C.P Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
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All
eyes are directed at the US housing market that has
been afflicted with a meltdown in its sub-prime mortgage
segment. With housing asset values having driven the
US economy, which in turn serves as locomotive for the
rest of the world, fears are that this American disease
could trigger a global slowdown. The assumption is that
the original problem is quintessentially American. If
it is not, the authors argue, the US experience can
have other lessons for countries like India. |
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The
Message from the Meltdown
| Apr
11 th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
sharp stock market correction of April 2nd was in reaction
to the RBI’s unexpected attempts towards immediate price
stabilisation. Unfortunately, the response to inflation
that has been the result of unbalanced sectoral growth
in the economy has to be such measures, which would
adversely affect the pace of growth and the returns
from speculation. However, the RBI has no option but
to rein in the rapid growth of liquidity resulting from
the sharp increase in foreign capital inflows into the
economy, especially the stock markets. |
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The
Potential Fall-out of Basel II
| Mar
17th 2007, C.P Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
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|
Continuing
with the discussion on Basel II and India's banking
structure, the authors argue that using external ratings
to decide the appropriate risk-weights to assess capital
adequacy inevitably leads banks to decide their lending
patterns based on pure profit considerations. This makes
it difficult to simultaneously implement a banking policy
that seeks to direct a proportion of lending to specified
sectors for meeting growth and equity objectives. |
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Basel
II and India's Banking Structure
| Mar
3rd 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
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|
Despite
the postponement of the target dates for banks to implement
the Basel II guidelines, adjustments aimed at realizing
that goal are underway. In this and the following article,
the authors examine what the guidelines involve, their
effects on banking structure and behaviour and some
likely outcomes of implementing them. |
|
Tata's
Gamble: Triumph or Nemesis?
| Feb
14th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
As
the euphoria over the acquisition of Anglo-Dutch steel
major Corus by the Tata group being a ''national'' victory
wanes, the question that would remain is whether the
price offered to clinch the deal is too high for comfort.
This concern is real despite the fact that Tata hopes
to rely on its advantages as an integrated steel producer. |
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The
Vice-Grip of Finance
| Dec
27th 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
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The
stock market in Thailand collapsed after the government
introduced limited market-based capital controls aimed
at stalling the rapid appreciation of the Thai baht.
The subsequent retreat by the government on the capital
control measures raises serious questions about policy
sovereignty in developing countries that have opened
their financial markets to portfolio capital flows.
|
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| Is
the Centre Resource-stretched? |
| Dec
20th 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
| An
argument commonly heard is that the Central government
is stretched for resources despite its best efforts, necessitating
a greater role for the private sector and the state governments.
This paper argues that the evidence does not validate
that position. A more appropriate tax policy relating
to dividends and capital gains would alone yield substantial
revenues for the government. Therefore, much more can
and needs to be done to mobilise resources for agreater
role for the Centre in development. |
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| Resources
for Equitable Growth |
| Dec
7th 2006, Economic Research Foundation |
|
The
declared aims of the Planning Commission's Approach
to the XIth Plan, all of which require substantially
increased public expenditure in physical infrastructure
and social sectors, simply cannot be met within the
confines of a restrictive fiscal policy stance. The
need to rethink policies of resource generation and
financial regulation is therefore urgent. In this context,
this paper, presented to the National Commission on
Enterprises in the Informal Sector, seeks to examine
the effects of the three perceptions underlying the
prevailing fiscal conservatism, questions their validity
and offers some alternatives for mobilising resources
for development. |
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| Primitive
Accumulation by Another Name |
| Oct
31st 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar |
|
The
mere creation of the much hailed Special Economic Zones
would not necessarily change the trajectory of export
growth from India by attracting exporting units, though
it may increase production for the domestic market by
large firms and transnationals with adverse implications
for existing domestic producers. This will pave the
way for a crude form of primitive accumulation of capital
where private capital would make huge profits at the
expense of the small property owner and the State, with
limited benefits in the form of foreign exchange revenues. |
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