The Financial Crisis and the Developing World
Oct 25th 2008, Jayati Ghosh
Violent fluctuations in stock prices along with other factors witnessed in emerging markets in the past two weeks have made it clear that the developing world is not insulated from the financial turmoil raging in industrial countries. The crisis will have different impacts in different places, depending on, in particular, the extent of integration of the capital market of the concerned developing country. An important positive fall-out of this financial crisis is that it has created an opportunity for replacing the economic model of neoliberalism with more progressive and democratic alternatives.
The Loss of Development Finance
Oct 23rd 2008, Jayati Ghosh
The financial tsunami that is now threatening to engulf many developing countries as well, makes all the more clear the dangers posed by unregulated financial markets. As is known, in addition to creating the conditions for greater fragility, financial liberalisation generates a bias towards deflationary macroeconomic policies and forces the state to adopt a deflationary stance to appease financial interests. In fact, financial liberalisation in developing countries has even worse consequences, because it can retard or even reverse the development.
Capitalism in Transition?
Oct 22nd 2008, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The takeover of major private banks by developed country governments is a desperate attempt to stall the financial meltdown in these economies, which resulted from the decision to allow private financial players unfettered freedom to pursue profits at the expense of all else. This threat has forced governments to drop their neo-conservative bias against State ownership.
In Search of Causes
Oct 22nd 2008, C.P. Chandrasekhar
As the financial crisis in the advanced economies intensifies, analyses of the causes of the crisis and its sources have multiplied. But, there is a degree of implicit agreement among different analyses that the crisis can be traced to forces unleashed by the transformation of US and global finance starting in the 1970s.
India and the Global Financial Crisis
Oct 15th 2008, C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
Although India is not likely to face a financial meltdown of the kind that was nearly experienced in the United States due to larger role of the nationalised banks and other controls on domestic finance here, there has been some adverse impact on the economy in the form of double-digit inflation, rupee depreciation, widening capital account deficit and decreasing foreign exchange reserves. It is therefore necessary that the government gives a second thought to its liberalisation policy.
Socialising Losses
Oct 10th 2008, C.P. Chandrasekhar
There are reasons to believe that the current package in the US bail out Bill will fail to address the financial crisis adequately and restore stability. Meanwhile, globally, markets are in a state of collapse, partly driven by the expectations generated by the scaremongering used to push through the package.
No End to the Global Meltdown
Sep 12 th 2008, C.P. Chandrasekhar
More than a year since the sub prime crisis began, the financial meltdown still persists. With the Lehman Brothers filing for bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch selling out recently, most major investment banks seem to be facing a new set of problems which are related to the now-not-so-new sub-prime crisis and the unwillingness of both the institutions concerned and the regulators to properly assess the effects of that crisis on their financial viability.
Innovative Scamsters
Aug 20th 2008, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The recent emergence of a set of financial instruments, by the name of 'auction rate securities' or ARS, signifies another symbol of the malfunctioning global financial markets. The ARS system apparently follows a transparent and market efficient principle, but in reality results in a lowering of the notional value of securities held by investors in the absence of an active market.
Gender Inequality in Banking Services in India A Note
Aug 2nd 2008, Pallavi Chavan
This brief note is a preliminary attempt to understand the extent and nature of gender inequality in the provision of banking services in India. It addresses the largely unanswered question of whether the increasing spread of micro finance has indeed resulted in financial inclusion of women at large and whether it has been able to counteract the existing gender inequality in the provision of banking services.
IT Firms and Financial Markets: A Changed Relationship
Jul 14 th 2008, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh
An interesting feature of recent stock market trends is the differential performance India’s IT sector relative to the market as a whole. While IT firms performed well in terms of the sales, exports and profits they recorded in the period since 2004, the shares of listed IT companies did not reflect the buoyancy that the overall stockmarket showed. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh discuss this curious feature, which contrasts with the experience at the turn of the millennium.
A Note on Fiscal Devolution and the Centrally Sponsored Schemes
May 26th 2008, Jayati Ghosh 
A constraint on the ability of the state governments to raise revenues in turn limits their capacity to fulfil even their constitutional responsibilities towards their citizens. The pattern of fiscal devolution from Centre to States is of the utmost significance from this perspective. This system however, under the respective Finance Commissions, has actually increased the centralisation of government finances over time.
An Insider View from George Soros
Apr 29th 2008, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Among some of the voices which are calling for more attention to the nature of the current US financial crisis and for a more disinterested view of the need for state intervention, an influencial one is that of George Soros. His book "The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crash of 2008 and What it Means", being released in May, challenges the prevailing sanguine view on the intensity and implications of the crisis. This review is based on a reading of the digital edition available from various ebook sellers and his recent speeches.
Leaning on the State
Mar 19th 2008, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Interestingly, the very financial liberalisation that created the problems epitomised by the sub-prime crisis was predicated on a critique of the efficacy and correctness of intervention by the state. But recent developments show that bail-outs by the government of institutions that are weakened by wrong financial decisions are now taken for granted, thus legitimising interventionism. Can the "problem" that liberalisation was directed to "solve" now itself become the solution to the problems that liberalisation creates?
The Global Liquidity Paradox
Mar 14th 2008, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh

One global fall-out of the sub-prime crisis in the US is a liquidity squeeze that central banks in the developed countries are attempting to counter by pumping liquidity into the system and reducing interest rates. This is indeed paradoxical, since the crisis in the first place was a result of an excessive build up of liquidity in the international system, leading to a synchronized boom in stock and real estate markets across the globe. Explaining the paradox requires understanding how the liquidity spiral occurs and how such liquidity is put to use by a liberalized and globalized financial system.

India and the World Economy
Jan 12 th 2008, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Boosted by media reports and assessments by public and private financial institutions of India's high growth potential, capital inflows have seen a major surge in India resulting for one in huge foreign exchange reserves. But expectations that India is out to share in the spoils of global dominance may be misplaced since these fail to take account of the kind of liabilities that India is accumulating in order to finance its still incipient global expansion. Also, the more the investor and lender confidence results in capital flows in excess of India's current account financing needs, the greater is the possibility that such confidence can erode.
More Space for Speculation
Jan 8th 2008, C.P. Chandrasekhar
SEBI has recently decided to permit institutional investors to indulge in short selling, or the sale of shares that they do not own, and to restore the Securities Lending and Borrowing Scheme which will allow market players to borrow stocks to either sell or honour delivery commitments. At this moment when the boom driven by past speculation threatens to unravel, this move will simply add to misuses in the stock market and speculative activities. The argument that they increase liquidity in the market and correct stock price over-valuation is also misplaced in the current context.
Too Little, Too Late
Dec 12th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Though the Finance Minister seems to have recently realized the folly of free and large capital inflows, the realization comes too late and offers too little in terms of solutions. He still seems to have an inadequate understanding of the problems that the capital surge has created and is still creating. Too late, because the Finance Minister looks unwilling to face the consequences of actions aimed at slowing, let alone arresting, capital inflows.
The Changing World of Corporate Finance
Nov 30th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Huge foreign capital inflows have recently pushed up equity valuations to generally unsustainable levels, and created many adverse impacts in the economy and on the corporate sector, and has made it difficult for the RBI to manage money supply and use the monetary lever to pursue other objectives. However, these trends notwithstanding, internal resources and bank finance dominate corporate financing and not equity, which receives all the attention because of the surge in foreign institutional investment and the media’s obsession with stock market buoyancy.
Too Much of a Good Thing
Nov 17th 2007, Jayati Ghosh
The massive surge in net capital inflows has put substantial pressure on the rupee. Faced with an unwanted surge of capital that is not being used for productive investment but is associated with a rising exchange rate, the need to put some limits and constraints on the capital inflows, in the form of direct marketing activity in lieu of a capital gains tax, cannot be denied
The Market Stabilization Scheme and the Indian Fisc
Nov 12th 2007, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh

The Market Stabilization Scheme was launched in 2004 to sterilize the effects of foreign exchange reserve accumulation resulting from large capital inflows. While allowing the RBI to manage money supply in the face of an unprecedented surge in capital inflows, the scheme is increasing the interest burden the central government has to bear and reducing its fiscal maneuverability. It is time, therefore, to look to ways to regulate capital inflows rather than adapt to them argue C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh.

Unravelling India's Growth Transition
Nov 2nd 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar
India's GDP growth has experienced a sudden boost in the middle of 2003. One specific component of the services sector, and interestingly, manufacturing growth seems to have contributed significantly to this transition in growth pattern. But the fact that the domestic market, which played a major role in this scenario, was driven in the final analysis by a financial boom that eased credit availability, reduced interest rates and encouraged debt-financed consumption and investment, makes the growth process fragile and a cause for concern for future policymaking.
Finance and the Real Economy
Oct 11th 2007, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh

At a time when reports of losses resulting from the subprime crisis are on the rise, a paradoxical surge in global stockmarkets is inducing an element of complacency. The worst is over, argue observers. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh take a longer view, and examine evidence on growth and volatility in the age of finance that suggests that the worst is perhaps not behind us.

Can the US Fed help Asian Markets?
Sep 5th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Institutions reeling under the knock-on effects of the developments in the US, especially its subprime housing market with rising defaults and foreclosures, are selling out in Asian markets to find the money to rebalance their capital structures or meet their commitments. The crisis in the US is therefore having wide impact on other economies in spite of good fundamentals. However, addressing it will be difficult as it needs major intervention not only from the US Fed but the President and the Congress.
A Reticent RBI Succumbs
Aug 11th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar
In spite of the growing importance of the financial sector, the RBI is often short on new initiatives and errs on the side of stability rather than change. Given the excessive inflow of credit into the system, the RBI has merely signaled that credit must be restrained basically in order to curb inflation, but has done very little in pursuit of that objective. However, it is important to note that the RBI’s ability to curb money supply is also getting severely restricted in the current financial regime characterized by high foreign capital inflows.
Murdoch’s Last Laffer
Jul 30th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar
The offer by Rupert Murdoch to buy up Dow Jones, which owns the Wall Street Journal shows that the Journal is now haunted by its own promotion of changes in American capitalism that have paved the way for the domination of merger and acquisitions wave. This has led to conversion of media empires into typical corporations that are as much the targets of take-over and seekers of financial gain as any other. This corporate-led, profit-driven dynamics underlying this trend, promoted vigorously by the media itself, has had serious adverse implications for questions of integrity especially of the financial media, which the Wall Street Journal projects itself as promoters of.
Banking on Home Builders
Jul 14th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Given active encouragement to chase profits in hitherto restricted markets with new instruments, Indian banks are choosing to change their portfolios rather sharply. The trend is towards a diversification of bank credit away from the commodity producing sectors and even trade which is almost completely counterbalanced by loans to individuals and professionals by means of personal loans and professional services, with a large concentration in housing loans. This has increased the extent of risk in the financial system.
Global finance today: Deja vu?
Jun 15th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar
This article describes and analyses a set of new characteristics in the nature of financial integration of developing countries with their developed counterparts over the last four years. It argues that this represents a transformation where the risks associated with the current surge in capital flows are far greater than World Bank predictions and that a turn in the investment cycle, with far-reaching implications, is real and imminent
Private Equity: A New Role for Finance?
May 22nd 2007, C. P. Chandrasekhar

Given that a substantial proportion of companies in Asian developing countries are either unlisted or have a small proportion of free-floating shares, the surge in investments by private equity firms suggests that foreign acquisitions could increase in the region sharply. With foreign investors controlling a rising share of total assets, the ability of domestic forces and the domestic State to influence the pattern and pace of growth of domestic economic activity would be substantially eroded.

Lessons from the US Sub-prime Lending Crisis
Apr 18 th 2007, C.P Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

All eyes are directed at the US housing market that has been afflicted with a meltdown in its sub-prime mortgage segment. With housing asset values having driven the US economy, which in turn serves as locomotive for the rest of the world, fears are that this American disease could trigger a global slowdown. The assumption is that the original problem is quintessentially American. If it is not, the authors argue, the US experience can have other lessons for countries like India.

The Message from the Meltdown
Apr 11 th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar

The sharp stock market correction of April 2nd was in reaction to the RBI’s unexpected attempts towards immediate price stabilisation. Unfortunately, the response to inflation that has been the result of unbalanced sectoral growth in the economy has to be such measures, which would adversely affect the pace of growth and the returns from speculation. However, the RBI has no option but to rein in the rapid growth of liquidity resulting from the sharp increase in foreign capital inflows into the economy, especially the stock markets.

The Potential Fall-out of Basel II
Mar 17th 2007, C.P Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Continuing with the discussion on Basel II and India's banking structure, the authors argue that using external ratings to decide the appropriate risk-weights to assess capital adequacy inevitably leads banks to decide their lending patterns based on pure profit considerations. This makes it difficult to simultaneously implement a banking policy that seeks to direct a proportion of lending to specified sectors for meeting growth and equity objectives.

Basel II and India's Banking Structure
Mar 3rd 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Despite the postponement of the target dates for banks to implement the Basel II guidelines, adjustments aimed at realizing that goal are underway. In this and the following article, the authors examine what the guidelines involve, their effects on banking structure and behaviour and some likely outcomes of implementing them.

Tata's Gamble: Triumph or Nemesis?
Feb 14th 2007, C.P. Chandrasekhar

As the euphoria over the acquisition of Anglo-Dutch steel major Corus by the Tata group being a ''national'' victory wanes, the question that would remain is whether the price offered to clinch the deal is too high for comfort. This concern is real despite the fact that Tata hopes to rely on its advantages as an integrated steel producer.

The Vice-Grip of Finance
Dec 27th 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The stock market in Thailand collapsed after the government introduced limited market-based capital controls aimed at stalling the rapid appreciation of the Thai baht. The subsequent retreat by the government on the capital control measures raises serious questions about policy sovereignty in developing countries that have opened their financial markets to portfolio capital flows.

Is the Centre Resource-stretched?
Dec 20th 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
An argument commonly heard is that the Central government is stretched for resources despite its best efforts, necessitating a greater role for the private sector and the state governments. This paper argues that the evidence does not validate that position. A more appropriate tax policy relating to dividends and capital gains would alone yield substantial revenues for the government. Therefore, much more can and needs to be done to mobilise resources for agreater role for the Centre in development.
Resources for Equitable Growth
Dec 7th 2006, Economic Research Foundation

The declared aims of the Planning Commission's Approach to the XIth Plan, all of which require substantially increased public expenditure in physical infrastructure and social sectors, simply cannot be met within the confines of a restrictive fiscal policy stance. The need to rethink policies of resource generation and financial regulation is therefore urgent. In this context, this paper, presented to the National Commission on Enterprises in the Informal Sector, seeks to examine the effects of the three perceptions underlying the prevailing fiscal conservatism, questions their validity and offers some alternatives for mobilising resources for development.

Primitive Accumulation by Another Name
Oct 31st 2006, C.P. Chandrasekhar

The mere creation of the much hailed Special Economic Zones would not necessarily change the trajectory of export growth from India by attracting exporting units, though it may increase production for the domestic market by large firms and transnationals with adverse implications for existing domestic producers. This will pave the way for a crude form of primitive accumulation of capital where private capital would make huge profits at the expense of the small property owner and the State, with limited benefits in the form of foreign exchange revenues.

 
Archives >>
 
 

Site optimised for 800 x 600 and above for Internet Explorer 5 and above
© MACROSCAN 2008