|
FDI
and the Balance of Payments in the 2000s |
| Mar
10th 2010, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
| The
most quoted indicator of the success of economic reform
is the noticeable rise in the inflow of foreign direct
investment during the last decade and a half. However,
the available Indian evidence on the performance of
foreign direct investment companies suggests that their
balance of payments consequences are adverse. |
|
| Controlling
Food Prices |
| Feb
23rd 2010, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
| Food
price inflation is one of the most critical economic
problems in the country today, and the ability to control
these prices quickly and effectively is one of the main
bases on which people will judge the performance of
this government. This article examines the recent pattern
of inflation in important food items and considers the
possible causes, including the growing distribution
margins. |
|
| The
Crisis and Employment in Asia |
| Feb
15th 2010, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
| Despite
scepticism about its sustainability, evidence shows
that the crisis of 2008-09 has bottomed out and a recovery
is likely, driven by the fiscal stimulus offered by
governments across the world. But figures from the ILO
indicate that the impact of the stimulus on employment
appears uneven, with export dependent economies in Asia
too adversely affected. |
|
| Are
we Heading for Another Global Primary Commodity Price
Surge? |
| Jan
13th 2010, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
| Following
the unprecedented volatility of global commodity prices
in 2007-08, it was widely predicted that the global
economic crisis would generate a dampening effect on
such prices. But the recent revival of prices especially
in some commodities suggests that this perception may
be premature. Examining recent trends in global commodity
prices and the reasons behind them, the article assesses
the prospects for prices in the immediate future. |
|
| Cloud
over Islamic Banking |
| Dec
26th 2009, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
| The
large surpluses which accumulated with West Asian oil
exporters after the 1970s generated a demand for financial
products that were sharia-compliant. The Islamic financial
industry, which grew as a result, was seen as a different
and safer component of the global financial sector.
But the Dubai World debacle and much else suggests that
these judgments were not warranted. |
|
| The
Recovery in Asia |
| Nov
18th 2009, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
| Asia's
recovery from the crisis has been remarkable, with the
aggregate evidence from the region pointing to a V-shaped
growth trajectory since the onset of the crisis. While
fiscal stimulus in some countries, especially China,
has been crucial both nationally and regionally, the
role of the revival in credit-financed private demand
should not be ignored. |
|
| Service
Exports in Developing Asia |
| Sep
10th 2009, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
| Trade
in services has become an important source of foreign
exchange in many Asian developing countries. But it
is widely expected that they would also be adversely
affected by the global recession because a significant
proportion of service trade is destined towards the
banking and financial services industry of the US market
alone. However, the tourism industry so far does not
show any definitive evidence of declining trends, although
there are some changes in the geographical pattern of
tourist arrivals. |
|
| The
Threat of Drought-driven Inflation |
| Aug
24th 2009, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
With
the government having declared that the country is faced
with a drought, attention has turned to predicting the
severity of its many effects. This article discusses
the likely impact of reduced agricultural production
on food prices, and therefore on real incomes and poverty
incidence. |
|
| Global
Trade in a Time of Crisis |
| Jul
28th 2009, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Among
the many differences of opinion that the global crisis
generated, one was whether in a more integrated world
there could be an element of desynchronization in the
incidence and intensity of crises. In particular, views
diverged on whether China and India would weather the
crisis and serve as shock absorbers for the world economy.
This article assesses the implications of recently released
data on world trade to address these questions. |
|
| The
Signs of a Global Recovery |
| Jun
16th 2009, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
| A
world in recession since the end of 2007 is searching
for signs that suggest the system is approaching the
bottom of the downturn and is likely to experience a
recovery. This article argues that even if the downturn
is touching bottom in terms of the stabilisation of
the rate of decline of GDP in the developed world, the
decline could persist. Further, it is unclear whether
there would be adequate alternative stimuli to sustain
the recovery when the effects of the already implemented
fiscal stimulus wane. |
|
| The
International Transmission of Fragility |
| May
10th 2009, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
| According
to the IMF, if the global financial crisis had principally
impacted the developed market economies at its onset,
in recent months conditions have deteriorated the most
in emerging markets. This has occurred largely because
of the effects of a capital reversal coming in the wake
of an earlier surge in capital inflows into emerging
markets, indicating that the lessons from boom-bust
cycles since the 1990s have not been absorbed. |
|
| Alternative
Perspectives on Panchayati Raj |
| May
8th 2009, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
| Panchayati
Raj should not be viewed either as a mere ''governance
arrangement'' or as an end in itself. It is a means
of social transformation that derives its legitimacy
exclusively from the perspective of how far it facilitates
this process of social transformation. If we miss the
transformational role of panchayati raj, then we may
end up condoning and even accentuating caste and class
oppression in the countryside and also weakening the
State structure. |
|
| Balance
of Payments Portents |
| Apr
3rd 2009, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
| The
sharp depreciation of the rupee that has taken its value
to more than Rs.50-to-a-dollar refocuses attention on
post-crisis developments on India's external front.
This article examines the implications of certain trends
revealed by recently released evidence. It is argued
that there are possible indications of speculative trends
pushing down the value of the rupee. If this is true,
it does not bode well for the balance of payments and
the rupee. |
|
| Social
Inclusion in the NREGS |
| Mar
5th 2009, C.P.
Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
| The
National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme is known
to be self-targeting in that only the poorer sections
of society are likely to be interested in hard physical
work that can fetch at most only the minimum daily wage.
But there were fears that it would still exclude socially
marginal groups, including women, Scheduled Castes and
Scheduled Tribes. The article examines the current evidence
on the extent to which such groups have been involved
in NREGS work in the different major states. |
|
| Whatever's
Happened to Global Banking? |
| Mar
4th 2009, C.P.
Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
| The
call for nationalization of banks in developed countries,
even if for a temporary period, marks a potential ideological
shift. Even staunch free market advocates are declaring
that nationalization is inevitable. This article examines
the factors explaining this acceptance of public ownership
and the implications that this has for the future of
banking regulation. |
|
| The
Asian Face of the Global Recession |
| Feb
10th 2009, C.P.
Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
| As
news of the intensity of the global downturn worsens,
so do assessments of the extent of its global spread.
This is distressing since it implies that the argument
that a ''decoupled'' Asia could serve as a shock absorber
that moderates the impact of the crisis was wrong. |
|
| How
did China Reduce Rural Poverty? |
| Jan
29th 2009, C.P.
Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
| Poverty
reduction in China is frequently seen as the result
of the rapid export-led industrialisation of the country
following its market-oriented reforms. But the article
argues that the main factors were institutional changes
in rural areas, especially land reforms, which enabled
the peasantry to take advantage of terms of trade movements
in their favour. |
|
| Global
Crisis and Commodity Prices |
| Dec
31st 2008, C.P.
Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
| The
extreme volatility of commodity prices in world trade
over the past year in particular is one more reflection
of the turbulence in the global economy. While some
of these price changes may have their origin in financial
markets rather than in changes in real demand and supply,
they nonetheless have major effects upon producers and
consumers. The authors examine trends in prices of some
major commodities in international trade in the past
two years and discuss their implications. |
|
| Global
Recession: How Deep and for How Long? |
| Dec
17th 2008, C.P.
Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
| Global
attention has now shifted from concern over the dimensions
of the financial crisis to assessing how deep the real
economic recession it has triggered would be and how
long it would last. With the recession intensifying
and projections turning more pessimistic, there are
reasons to fear that a recovery expected in 2010 may
not materialize. |
|
| Foreign
Reserves and the Rupee |
| Dec
5th 2008, C.P.
Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
| The
sharp depreciation of the rupee and the accompanying
drain of foreign exchange reserves are major sources
of concern regarding the state of the Indian economy.
In this article, the authors examine some of the factors
that underlie these tendencies and the prospect of their
reversal. |
|
| The
Industrial Recession: New or Ongoing? |
| Nov
18th 2008, C.P.
Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
| Current
economic problems in the Indian economy are being presented
by the government as created entirely by the direct
and indirect effects of the global financial crisis.
Even the industrial slowdown is being blamed on the
adverse impact of the global slowdown upon manufacturing
exports. However, the official data suggest that the
industrial slowdown began well before the effects of
the external crisis began to be felt in India. |
|
| Prospect
of an Industrial Recession |
| Nov
4th 2008, C.P.
Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
| Some
observers are of the view that the sharp fall in the
month-on-month annual rate of industrial growth in August
2008 exaggerates the actual and likely slow down in
industrial growth. This article discusses why the broad
trend suggested by the Index of Industrial Production
(IIP) may not be too far off the mark. |
|
| India
and the Global Financial Crisis |
| Oct
15th 2008, C.P.
Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
| Although
India is not likely to face a financial meltdown of
the kind that was nearly experienced in the United States
due to larger role of the nationalised banks and other
controls on domestic finance here, there has been some
adverse impact on the economy in the form of double-digit
inflation, rupee depreciation, widening capital account
deficit and decreasing foreign exchange reserves. It
is therefore necessary that the government gives a second
thought to its liberalisation policy. |
|
| Employment
and the Pattern of Growth |
| Oct
8th 2008, C.P.
Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
| A
much discussed aspect of post-reform industrial performance
is the stagnation of employment in the organised manufacturing
sector, despite high rates of output growth. The authors
examine this performance and relate this to the composition
of growth in the registered manufacturing sector, and
suggest that demand-side factors may have an important
explanatory role. |
|
| Implementing
the NREGS |
| Sep
24th 2008, C.P.
Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
Despite
many problems, the enormous potential of the NREGS to
generate more employment directly and indirectly as
well as to transform rural economic and social relations
is already evident in some states and districts. In
this article, the authors examine the official evidence
on implementation thus far. |
|
| India's
Hitech Lag |
| Sep
8th 2008, C.P.
Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
The
last two decades have seen the gradual erosion of US
and EU dominance in hitech manufacturing. The principal
challenger has been and remains China. India, unfortunately,
has lagged far behind, though capabilities generated
during the import substitution years have given it some
recent gains in global markets, argue the authors. |
|
| Gender
Inequality in Banking Services in India A Note |
| Aug
2nd 2008, Pallavi Chavan |
|
|
This brief note is a preliminary attempt to understand
the extent and nature of gender inequality in the provision
of banking services in India. It addresses the largely
unanswered question of whether the increasing spread
of micro finance has indeed resulted in financial inclusion
of women at large and whether it has been able to counteract
the existing gender inequality in the provision of banking
services. |
|
| Balance
of Payments: Do We Need to Worry? |
| Aug
1st
2008, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
Despite the apparent public complacency regarding the
balance of payments, there are reasons to be concerned
about recent trends. In this artilce the authors specifically
examine tendencies in the current account and assess
their significance for the immediate future. |
|
| New
Light on Business Services |
| Jul
28th 2008, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
A defining feature of post-liberalization growth in
India is the dominant role of services in driving growth
of both output and employment at a relatively low level
of per capita income. In defence of this premature rise
to dominance of services it has been argued that modern
business services, especially knowledge-intensive services,
account for much of this growth. But new evidence suggests
that this may not be necessarily true, argue the authors. |
|
| IT
Firms and Financial Markets: A Changed Relationship |
| Jul
14th 2008, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
An interesting feature of recent stock market trends
is the differential performance India's IT sector relative
to the market as a whole. While IT firms performed well
in terms of the sales, exports and profits they recorded
in the period since 2004, the shares of listed IT companies
did not reflect the buoyancy that the overall stockmarket
showed. C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh discuss
this curious feature, which contrasts with the experience
at the turn of the millennium. |
|
| A
Note on Fiscal Devolution and the Centrally Sponsored
Schemes |
| May
26th
2008, Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
A constraint on the ability of the state governments
to raise revenues in turn limits their capacity to fulfil
even their constitutional responsibilities towards their
citizens. The pattern of fiscal devolution from Centre
to States is of the utmost significance from this perspective.
This system however, under the respective Finance Commissions,
has actually increased the centralisation of government
finances over time. |
|
| Recent
Growth in West Bengal |
| May
12th
2008, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
| The
state of West Bengal has been the focus of national
discussion because of the various implications of its
proposed industrialisation policy. In this article the
authors consider the background to this policy by analysing
the most recent available evidence on growth trends
in West Bengal. |
|
| The
State of Fiscal Devolution |
| Apr
23rd 2008, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
| Increasingly
the central government tries to pass the responsibility
for economic and social outcomes on to the state governments.
But does the current state of fiscal federalism justify
this? In this article the authors examine this question. |
|
| Global
Inflation and India |
| Apr
16 th 2008, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
| Most
analyses of accelerating inflation in India emphasise
the role of "imported inflation" in driving
Indian prices upwards. In this article, C.P. Chandrasekhar
and Jayati Ghosh examine the trends in global markets
that influence domestic price movements and their implications. |
|
| Caste
and Discrimination in Higher Education: Evidence from
the National Sample Surveys |
| Apr
8 th 2008, Jayati Ghosh |
|
| The
issue of reservations in higher education in India has
been a volatile issue which also has direct implications
not only for public policy but also for the administration
and functioning of academic institutions, not to mention
the fate of a large number of students. This note is
an attempt to add to the currently meagre empirical
literature by analysing the available evidence on the
actual extent of marginalisation and discrimination
apparently faced by different categories in the population,
based on the results of the most recent large National
Sample Survey. |
|
| The
Global Liquidity Paradox |
| Mar
14th 2008, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
| One
global fall-out of the sub-prime crisis in the US is
a liquidity squeeze that central banks in the developed
countries are attempting to counter by pumping liquidity
into the system and reducing interest rates. This is
indeed paradoxical, since the crisis in the first place
was a result of an excessive build up of liquidity in
the international system, leading to a synchronized
boom in stock and real estate markets across the globe.
Explaining the paradox requires understanding how the
liquidity spiral occurs and how such liquidity is put
to use by a liberalized and globalized financial system. |
|
| China's
African Hinterland |
| Mar
10th 2008, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
| China's
growing presence in Africa has led to arguments that
the country is seeking to meet its growing requirements
of primary products, including oil, by building a relationship
reminiscent of a colonial past with many African countries.
In this article, the authors examine what the evidence
reveals about this relationship. |
|
| Oil
Prices and the US Dollar |
| Mar
7th 2008, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
| The
depreciation of the US dollar has been closely bound
up with the movement of oil prices, as world oil trade
is typically denominated in dollars. Yet this relationship
may now be under threat as the dollar continues to depreciate
and the US economy tips into recession. This article
examines how oil prices have changed with different
numeraires, and considers the implications for the future
of the oil-dollar nexus. |
|
| Can
China Become the New Growth Pole for Asia? |
| Mar
3rd 2008, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
| With
the US economy clearly tipping into recession, international
attention is now focussed on the extent to which China
and India can create an alternative growth pole for
the world economy through their increasing demand. In
this article, the authors assess the potential for China
to play such a role by analysing its trade pattern with
developing Asia. |
|
| Wheat
Inflation and India |
| Dec
12th 2007, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
| Though
the Finance Minister seems to have recently realized
the folly of free and large capital inflows, the realization
comes too late and offers too little in terms of solutions.
He still seems to have an inadequate understanding of
the problems that the capital surge has created and
is still creating. Too late, because the Finance Minister
looks unwilling to face the consequences of actions
aimed at slowing, let alone arresting, capital inflows. |
|
| The
Market Stabilization Scheme and the Indian Fisc |
| Nov
12th 2007, C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
The
Market Stabilization Scheme was launched in 2004 to
sterilize the effects of foreign exchange reserve accumulation
resulting from large capital inflows. While allowing
the RBI to manage money supply in the face of an unprecedented
surge in capital inflows, the scheme is increasing the
interest burden the central government has to bear and
reducing its fiscal maneuverability. It is time, therefore,
to look to ways to regulate capital inflows rather than
adapt to them argue C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh. |
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